Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
DAL @ NYG
2026 Week 1 (REG) · Sun Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET · MetLife Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_01_DAL_NYG
Final: DAL 20 – NYG 28 (home won).
model p(home)47.0%informed
market p(home)40.0%as recorded with the forecast
edge▲ +7.0 ppplay NYG
Probability history
run
pass
arm
captured (UTC)
k ok
median
sample spread
samples
market
edge
T2_informed
blind
identified
2026-09-10 05:32 UTC
5/5
58.0%
1.0 pp
0.580, 0.570, 0.580, 0.570, 0.580
40.7%
▲ +17.3 pp
T2_informed
informed
identified
2026-09-10 05:34 UTC
5/5
46.0%
2.0 pp
0.460, 0.440, 0.460, 0.460, 0.460
40.7%
▲ +5.3 pp
slate_diag
blind
identified
2026-09-10 14:49 UTC
1/1
55.0%
0.0 pp
0.550
40.7%
▲ +14.3 pp
T2_informed
blind
identified
2026-09-11 22:28 UTC
0/5
n/a
0.0 pp
none parsed
40.7%
n/a
T2_informed
informed
identified
2026-09-11 22:29 UTC
0/5
n/a
0.0 pp
none parsed
40.7%
n/a
T3_final
informed
identified
2026-09-13 23:17 UTC
5/5
47.0%
9.0 pp
0.520, 0.450, 0.450, 0.540, 0.470
40.0%
▲ +7.0 pp
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v2, mode game.
What the model said — T3_final informed pass
sample 0 · p(home) 52.0% · confidence medium
NYG def EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL +0.178 in trailing 8 (lower better) => ~0.14 EPA/play defensive edge
NYG net EPA/play 0.000 (home) vs DAL -0.100 (away) over same sample
Nabers confirmed active with Full practice; dossier prior risk 0.33 pts lost, but he hasn't played since Week 4
DAL missing RB Davis (Out, 0.18 pts risk) and TE Schoonmaker (DNP, no designation)
Market prices NYG ~42% (+136) with DAL -3, while home base rate is 54.5% and NYG won last H2H 34-17
Biggest uncertainty: Nabers' real-world effectiveness and snap cap returning from torn ACL despite being active, plus whether DAL's poor away defensive EPA (+0.178) reflects current roster quality or schedule noise
Data gaps: Full DAL injury report beyond Davis/Schoonmaker (e.g., any OL/DB limitations), Snap-share and availability for DAL skill players (Lamb, Pickens, Ferguson) in trailing games, Special teams EPA and coaching scheme adjustments under new NYG HC John Harbaugh, Prescott's 81% snap share in trailing 3 games—context for any lingering limitation
sample 1 · p(home) 45.0% · confidence medium
NYG home defense EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL away defense +0.178 over trailing 8 games
NYG beat DAL 34-17 in most recent meeting; DAL is 1-4 in trailing 5 games
Malik Nabers active (knee) but questionable with 0.33 expected pts lost; practiced Full
DAL away offense EPA +0.078 and 46.7% success rate vs NYG home +0.040 and 42.1%
DAL RB Malik Davis out (0.18 pts lost) and TE Luke Schoonmaker DNP; Dak Prescott 81% snap share in last 3 games
Biggest uncertainty: Whether Malik Nabers is near full strength in his first game back from a torn ACL despite being active, and if Dak Prescott's 81% recent snap share signals a hidden limitation
Data gaps: Full-season opponent-adjusted EPA/play splits, Defensive depth/injury status beyond listed report, Special teams EPA and hidden-yardage metrics, Impact of 12 mph wind gusts on deep passing efficiency
sample 2 · p(home) 45.0% · confidence medium
NYG home def EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL away +0.178 (0.138/play gap over 8 games)
Nabers active (Full practice; confirmed 19:10 news) reducing prior expected loss from ~0.33 pts (value +1.09, 88% snaps)
DAL RB Davis out (0.18 pts lost, 21% snap share) and TE Schoonmaker DNP with no designation
NYG won last H2H 34-17; DAL 1-4 in trailing 5 games vs NYG 2-3
Biggest uncertainty: Nabers' actual effectiveness and snap load in first game back from torn ACL despite being active and practicing fully; 8-game EPA splits are small-sample and pre-2026
Data gaps: Schoonmaker official game status/designation and point-impact value, Current 2026 season offensive/defensive efficiency (all form is trailing pre-2026 games), Special teams EPA and turnover luck metrics, Any snap restriction or route limit for Nabers in Week 1
sample 3 · p(home) 54.0% · confidence medium
NYG home def EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL away def +0.178 (lower is better)
Last meeting NYG W 34-17 vs DAL at MetLife (Jan 2026)
WR Malik Nabers active, full practice, 88% snap share, +1.09 pt value; expected loss only 0.33 pts
DAL RB Malik Davis out (0.18 pts lost, 21% snaps) and TE Luke Schoonmaker DNP with no designation
DAL trailing 5 games 1-4 with away off success 46.7% and def EPA +0.178; NYG 2-3 with home off success 42.1%
Biggest uncertainty: Malik Nabers' actual effectiveness and snap count in first game back from torn ACL, and whether Jaxson Dart can replicate his prior home win against Dak Prescott with a now-healthy receiving corps
Data gaps: No quantified availability impact for TE Luke Schoonmaker despite DNP in practice, No league-average EPA/play baseline to directly convert split offense/defense EPA into expected points, No recent snap-share or performance data for Nabers since Week 4 last season to calibrate rust/return level
sample 4 · p(home) 47.0% · confidence medium
NYG def EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL +0.178 over trailing 8 games (~0.138/play gap)
NYG won last meeting 34-17; NYG 2-3 in last 5 vs DAL 1-4 with three double-digit losses
Nabers confirmed active after Full practice (value +1.09 pts, risk 0.33 pts lost); DAL missing Davis (Out, 0.18 pts, 21% snaps)
NYG home offense success 42.1% vs DAL away 46.7%, but NYG pass rate lower (51.1% vs 57.1%)
Biggest uncertainty: Nabers' real effectiveness and snap/route load in first game back from torn ACL (out since Week 4), plus Schoonmaker's status after DNP with no designation
Data gaps: Opponent-adjusted EPA and defensive success rates, Schoonmaker's official game status despite DNP and no injury designation, Nabers' planned snap/route limitation and conditioning level, Prescott's 81% snap share context in trailing 3 games (rest/injury?)
Earlier runs (3)
T2_informed blind sample 0 · p(home) 58.0%
NYG home defense EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL away defense +0.178 (lower is better) over trailing 8 games
NYG beat DAL 34-17 in the most recent head-to-head (listed in trailing results)
DAL LG Tyler Smith confirmed out multiple weeks (thumb surgery) and backup OG Ajani Cornelius limited; NYG WR Malik Nabers full practice Wed but game status still TBD
DAL away form: off EPA +0.078, def EPA +0.178, success rate 46.7%, pass rate 57.1% (8 games)
NYG home form: off EPA +0.040, def EPA +0.040, success rate 42.1%, pass rate 51.1% (8 games); Dak Prescott only 81% snap share in trailing 3 games
Whether Malik Nabers actually suits up and is effective post-ACL, and how much Tyler Smith's absence degrades Dallas pass protection for Prescott
T2_informed blind sample 1 · p(home) 57.0%
NYG home defense EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL away defense +0.178 (lower better)
DAL starting LG Tyler Smith out (thumb surgery) and backup Ajani Cornelius limited
NYG QB Dart 100% snap share last 3 games vs DAL QB Prescott 81% snap share over same span
NYG won last meeting 34-17 and DAL is 1-4 in trailing 5 games
Malik Nabers full practice Wednesday but status TBD; has not played since ACL tear ~1 year ago
Whether Malik Nabers actually suits up and how effective he is after nearly a year out, plus the absence of filed injury reports for either team
T2_informed blind sample 2 · p(home) 58.0%
NYG home def EPA/play +0.040 vs DAL away def EPA/play +0.178 over trailing 8 games
NYG beat DAL 34-17 in most recent meeting; DAL 1-4 in last 5 games vs NYG 2-3
DAL starting LG Tyler Smith out (thumb surgery); backup OG Ajani Cornelius limited in practice
Malik Nabers full practice Wednesday but status TBD after ACL tear (last played Sept 28)
No official Week 1 injury report filed for either team, so Nabers' true availability/effectiveness post-ACL and any other hidden absences (e.g., Prescott's recent 81% snap share over last 3 games) are unquantified
T2_informed blind sample 3 · p(home) 57.0%
NYG home def EPA +0.040 vs DAL away def EPA +0.178 over trailing 8 games
DAL away net EPA/play ~ -0.100 (off +0.078 minus def +0.178) vs NYG home net ~0.0
DAL LG Tyler Smith out multiple weeks (thumb surgery) despite 99% snap share in trailing 3 games
NYG won last H2H 34-17; DAL 1-4 in trailing 5 results
Malik Nabers full practice but status TBD after ACL tear (last played Sept 28); no injury report filed
Malik Nabers' actual availability, snap share, and effectiveness in his first game back from ACL, plus missing filed injury reports for both teams
T2_informed blind sample 4 · p(home) 58.0%
NYG home def EPA +0.040 vs DAL away def EPA +0.178 (0.138 gap favoring NYG)
DAL missing starting LG Tyler Smith (thumb surgery, out multiple weeks); Prescott only 81% snap share over last 3 games vs Dart 100%
NYG won last meeting 34-17 and DAL is 1-4 in trailing 5 with defense allowing 34+ in 4 of those games
Malik Nabers full practice Wednesday but status still TBD; if active boosts NYG offense that already runs 51.1% pass rate at home
Weather minimal (79F, wind 5 mph gusts 12), so no suppression of DAL passing game with Lamb/Pickens
Whether Malik Nabers actually suits up and returns to form post-ACL, and the full Week 1 injury/availability picture for both teams since no report was filed
T2_informed informed sample 0 · p(home) 46.0%
NYG home def EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL away def EPA allowed +0.178 (lower is better)
DAL starting LG Tyler Smith out for multiple weeks (thumb surgery); he played 99% of offensive snaps over last 3 games
NYG won last meeting 34-17 and DAL is 1-4 in trailing 5 games; NYG offense success rate 42.1% vs DAL 46.7%
Malik Nabers practiced fully but status is TBD after ACL tear (Sep 28); no Week 1 injury report filed for either team
Market prices DAL -3 with NYG +136, implying ~41% home win; I adjust up ~5 pts for Smith absence and defensive gap but not to blind 58%
Whether Malik Nabers actually plays and is effective after nearly a year out, plus the absence of filed injury reports for both teams leaving other availability unknown
T2_informed informed sample 1 · p(home) 44.0%
NYG home def EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL away +0.178 over trailing 8 games
DAL starting LG Tyler Smith out multiple weeks (thumb surgery); backup OG Ajani Cornelius limited
Malik Nabers full practice Wednesday but status TBD after ACL tear (last played Sept 28)
NYG won last meeting 34-17; DAL 1-4 in trailing 5 with defense allowing 30+ in 4 losses
Market line DAL -3 / NYG +136 implies ~40.7% home win; revised down from blind 0.580
Full Week 1 injury reports not filed; Nabers' actual game snap share and effectiveness post-ACL unknown; quality of DAL O-line replacements unclear
T2_informed informed sample 2 · p(home) 46.0%
NYG home def EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL away def EPA +0.178 (0.138 gap, lower better)
DAL missing starting LG Tyler Smith (out multiple weeks) and backup OG Ajani Cornelius limited
NYG won last meeting vs DAL 34-17; DAL away record 1-4 in trailing 5
Malik Nabers full practice but status TBD after ACL tear (last played Sept 2025)
DAL away off EPA +0.078 vs NYG home off EPA +0.040 (0.038 DAL edge)
Nabers' actual game status and rust/volume after nearly a year out post-ACL, compounded by no filed injury report for either team
T2_informed informed sample 3 · p(home) 46.0%
NYG home def EPA allowed +0.040 vs DAL away def EPA allowed +0.178
DAL missing starting OG Tyler Smith (out) with backup Ajani Cornelius limited
Nabers full practice but status TBD after ACL; Prescott trailing snap share 81% vs Dart 100%
NYG won last H2H 34-17; recent form 2-3 vs DAL 1-4
Market line DAL -3 / NYG +136 implies ~41% home win; revised up for home defense and DAL O-line loss
Nabers' actual availability, rust, and snap share after nearly a year out, plus missing full injury reports
T2_informed informed sample 4 · p(home) 46.0%
NYG home def EPA +0.040 vs DAL away def EPA +0.178 over trailing 8 games
NYG beat DAL 34-17 in recent meeting; DAL lost 4 of last 5 games
Cowboys LG Tyler Smith out multiple weeks (thumb surgery), backup OG Cornelius limited; Giants WR Nabers full practice but returning from ACL tear after ~1 year out
Market spread DAL -3 with NYG +136 moneyline implies ~41% home win before adjustment
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.