Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
DEN @ KC
2026 Week 1 (REG) · Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_01_DEN_KC
Final: DEN 10 – KC 31 (home won).
model p(home)46.0%informed
market p(home)54.3%as recorded with the forecast
edge▼ -8.3 ppplay DEN
Probability history
run
pass
arm
captured (UTC)
k ok
median
sample spread
samples
market
edge
T2_informed
blind
identified
2026-09-10 05:35 UTC
5/5
44.0%
5.0 pp
0.460, 0.450, 0.440, 0.420, 0.410
58.3%
▼ -14.3 pp
T2_informed
informed
identified
2026-09-10 05:37 UTC
5/5
53.0%
7.0 pp
0.480, 0.550, 0.530, 0.530, 0.490
58.3%
▼ -5.3 pp
slate_diag
blind
identified
2026-09-10 14:49 UTC
1/1
43.0%
0.0 pp
0.430
57.2%
▼ -14.2 pp
T2_informed
blind
identified
2026-09-11 22:29 UTC
0/5
n/a
0.0 pp
none parsed
57.2%
n/a
T2_informed
informed
identified
2026-09-11 22:30 UTC
0/5
n/a
0.0 pp
none parsed
57.2%
n/a
T3_final
informed
identified
2026-09-14 23:03 UTC
5/5
46.0%
3.0 pp
0.450, 0.470, 0.440, 0.460, 0.460
54.3%
▼ -8.3 pp
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v2, mode game.
What the model said — T3_final informed pass
sample 0 · p(home) 45.0% · confidence medium
KC home offense -0.117 EPA/play and 38.4% success over trailing 8 games vs DEN away defense allowing -0.052 EPA/play
KC missing T Simmons (93% snap share, +0.88 pts) and S Conner (80%, +0.50 pts) for 1.38 pts lost; Chris Jones DNP with no designation and Sneed limited
Wind 15 mph gusting to 30 mph at 92F on outdoor grass with total 43.5
DEN won last meeting @ KC 20-13 and away form shows +0.024 EPA/play with 44.8% success rate
Mahomes returns from ACL (274 days) behind undrafted rookie LT Benson; Nix returns from ankle with DEN line intact (McGlinchey/Meinerz 100%, Bolles 95%)
Biggest uncertainty: Denver's injury report was not filed, and Mahomes' actual post-surgery mobility and effectiveness behind a rookie left tackle against Denver's defense are unknown
Data gaps: Denver injury report not filed for Week 1, Chris Jones listed with no designation despite DNP practice—game status and snap share unclear, Weather-driven play-calling adjustments and actual snap shares for returning QBs not quantified in dossier
sample 1 · p(home) 47.0% · confidence medium
KC home offense EPA/play -0.117 and 38.4% success rate over trailing 8 games vs DEN away defense EPA -0.052
KC missing LT Josh Simmons (93% snap share) and S Chamarri Conner (80% snap share) for 1.38 expected points lost; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson starts at LT
DEN away offense EPA/play +0.024 with 44.8% success rate and beat KC 20-13 in the last meeting @ Arrowhead
Wind 15 mph gusting to 30 with 43.5 total suppresses passing for returning QBs Mahomes (post-ACL) and Nix (post-ankle)
DEN filed no injury report, implying full strength for CB Patrick Surtain II (89% snaps) and LB Alex Singleton (92% snaps)
Biggest uncertainty: DEN's Week 1 injury report was not filed, so true availability for defenders like S Talanoa Hufanga (only 2% recent offensive snap share, position/role unclear) and Nix's ankle recovery are unknown; Chris Jones also practiced DNP with no designation, leaving his snap count and effectiveness ambiguous.
Data gaps: DEN injury report not filed for Week 1, Chris Jones game status and projected snaps despite DNP practice with no injury designation, Quantified weather impact on passing EPA for this specific matchup not provided, 8-game trailing EPA samples include pre-injury rosters and may not fully reflect current quality after Mahomes and Nix return
sample 2 · p(home) 44.0% · confidence medium
KC home offense EPA/play -0.117 and success rate 38.4% over trailing 8 games
DEN away defense EPA allowed -0.052 and offense EPA +0.024 (positive unit differential)
KC missing T Simmons (93% snaps, +0.88 pts) and S Conner (80% snaps, +0.50 pts) for 1.38 pts lost; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson starts at LT
Weather: 15 mph wind gusting to 30 mph at outdoor Arrowhead, suppressing passing for a rusty Mahomes post-ACL
KC 0-5 in last 5 scoring 9-14 points; DEN 3-2 including 20-13 win at KC
Biggest uncertainty: Mahomes' actual mobility and effectiveness behind an inexperienced left tackle against Denver's defense in high wind, plus missing DEN injury report
Data gaps: DEN injury report not filed for this week, No practice/availability designations for Chris Jones or L'Jarius Sneed beyond DNP/Limited with 'no designation', No quantitative measure of Benson's replacement-level play at LT, Exact impact of 30 mph gusts on KC/DEN passing efficiency not specified
sample 3 · p(home) 46.0% · confidence low
KC home offense -0.117 EPA/play and 38.4% success rate over trailing 8 games vs DEN away defense -0.052 EPA/play
KC missing T Simmons (93% snap, +0.88 pts) and S Conner (80% snap, +0.50 pts); total availability impact 1.38 spread points lost
Weather: 92F with wind 15 mph gusting to 30 mph, impacting KC 61.6% pass-rate offense behind undrafted rookie LT Benson
DEN away offense +0.024 EPA/play (44.8% success) and 3-2 in last 5 including 20-13 win at Arrowhead; KC 0-5 scoring 9-16 points
Market prices KC -2.5 (~57% implied) despite poor form, injuries, and high wind
Biggest uncertainty: Patrick Mahomes' true effectiveness 274 days post-multi-ligament knee surgery behind a rookie LT, plus Denver's unfiled injury report leaving Bo Nix ankle status and defensive availability unknown
Data gaps: Denver did not file a Week 1 injury report, Chris Jones practice DNP with no designation—unclear if active, No quantitative wind-adjustment factor for this specific QB/OL combination, Talanoa Hufanga listed at 2% offensive snap share—defensive role/availability unclear
Biggest uncertainty: Mahomes' actual post-ACL mobility and effectiveness behind a replacement LT who never played college LT, facing Denver's elite defense, plus Chris Jones (DNP all week, no designation) true availability and snap share
Data gaps: DEN injury report not filed for Week 1, so unknown Broncos absences, No dossier quantification of wind impact on EPA/play for this matchup, No snap-share or performance data for replacement LT Kahlil Benson
Earlier runs (3)
T2_informed blind sample 0 · p(home) 46.0%
KC home offense -0.117 EPA/play and 38.4% success rate over trailing 8 games; DEN away defense -0.052 EPA/play
DEN away offense +0.024 EPA/play with 44.8% success and won last meeting at Arrowhead 20-13
KC lost 5 straight (scoring 9-16 pts); DEN won 3 of last 5
Wind 15 mph gusting 30 mph; KC pass rate 61.6% with LT Josh Simmons trending out per news
No injury reports filed; DEN S Hufanga 2% snap share, CB Surtain 89%; KC TE Kelce 85%, WR Smith-Schuster 83%
Actual availability of Simmons and other unreported injuries for both teams, plus how 30 mph gusts affect passing behind a depleted KC line
T2_informed blind sample 1 · p(home) 45.0%
KC trailing-8 home offense EPA/play -0.117 and success rate 38.4% vs DEN away defense EPA/play -0.052
DEN trailing-8 away offense EPA/play +0.024 with 44.8% success rate vs KC home defense -0.023
KC LT Josh Simmons trending out (news 2026-09-08) with line pressure; wind 15 mph gusts 30 at Arrowhead
Recent H2H in sample: DEN won @ KC 20-13; KC on 5-game skid including home losses to DEN/LAC/HOU
DEN OL core snap shares 95-100% (Bolles/McGlinchey/Meinerz/Powers) vs KC missing line depth
No injury reports or practice statuses filed for either team, leaving starter availability—especially DEN S Hufanga (2% snap share over last 3 games) and KC skill positions beyond Kelce/JuJu—unknown
T2_informed blind sample 2 · p(home) 44.0%
KC trailing-8 home offense EPA/play -0.117 with 38.4% success rate vs DEN away defense EPA -0.052
DEN trailing-8 away offense EPA/play +0.024, 44.8% success rate; won last meeting at Arrowhead 20-13
Forecast wind 15 mph gusting to 30 at 92F outdoors; KC pass rate 61.6%
2026-09-08 news: Chiefs LT Josh Simmons likely out, with Mahomes described 'under siege'
KC 5-game skid scoring 12, 13, 9, 13, 10; DEN 3-2 in trailing five results
No injury reports filed for either team, so confirmed availability for Simmons, Rashee Rice, Talanoa Hufanga, and other snap-share leaders is unknown, and Week 1 form may not carry over from prior-season samples
T2_informed blind sample 3 · p(home) 42.0%
KC home offense EPA/play -0.117 vs DEN away +0.024 over trailing 8 games
DEN defense allowed -0.052 EPA/play away vs KC defense -0.023 over trailing 8 games
Kickoff wind 15 mph gusting to 30 at outdoor grass venue suppresses passing (both teams ~60-62% pass rate)
KC LT Josh Simmons likely out per 2026-09-08 news, with Mahomes facing pressure behind intact DEN front (Surtain 89%, Singleton 92%, Moss 93% snap shares)
DEN won last meeting @ KC 20-13 and carries 44.8% offensive success rate vs KC's 38.4%
No Week 1 injury report filed for either team, so confirmed availability of Simmons, Kelce (85% snap share), Surtain, and other starters is unknown, and extreme gusty wind makes passing-game projection highly volatile
T2_informed blind sample 4 · p(home) 41.0%
KC home offense EPA/play -0.117 with 38.4% success rate over trailing 8 games
DEN away defense EPA/play -0.052 and offense +0.024 over trailing 8 games
Forecast wind 15 mph gusting to 30 mph at outdoor Arrowhead
KC LT Josh Simmons likely out per 2026-09-08 report
DEN won 20-13 at Arrowhead in trailing sample; KC on 5-game skid
Unfiled Week 1 injury reports hide true availability, especially DEN S Talanoa Hufanga (only 2% snap share over last 3 games) and any other starters, plus Week 1 roster/scheme changes not in trailing splits
T2_informed informed sample 0 · p(home) 48.0%
KC trailing-8 home offense EPA/play -0.117 with 38.4% success rate vs DEN away defense allowing -0.052 EPA/play
DEN trailing-8 away offense +0.024 EPA/play, 44.8% success rate, and direct @KC win 20-13 in recent results
Weather 92F, wind 15 mph gusting to 30 mph outdoors on grass; suppresses passing for teams with ~61% pass rates
News reports KC LT Josh Simmons likely out; neither team filed a Week 1 injury report, and DEN S Talanoa Hufanga played only 2% of snaps over last 3 games
Market line KC -3 implies ~58.3%, but poor KC form, line weakness, and Denver's defensive numbers justify a downward revision
No filed injury reports for either team—especially confirmation of Simmons being out and whether Denver's low-snap defenders (e.g., Hufanga at 2%) are available—plus how 30 mph gusts will affect downfield passing
T2_informed informed sample 1 · p(home) 55.0%
KC home offense EPA/play -0.117 and 38.4% success over last 8 home games
DEN away defense EPA/play -0.052 and prior 20-13 win at Arrowhead
KC LT Josh Simmons likely out (news 2026-09-08) with 15 mph wind gusting to 30
Market prices KC -3 / -155 (~58%); downward revision for KC 5-game skid and line issues
No Week 1 injury report filed for either team, so availability beyond Simmons and Hufanga's 2% snap share is unknown
T2_informed informed sample 2 · p(home) 53.0%
KC home trailing 8: off EPA/play -0.117, success rate 38.4%, def EPA -0.023
DEN away trailing 8: off EPA/play +0.024, def EPA -0.052, success rate 44.8%
KC LT Josh Simmons trending out (news 2026-09-08); no formal injury report filed for either team
Wind 15 mph gusts 30 at outdoor Arrowhead with total 43.5
DEN won last meeting @ KC 20-13; KC recent results show 5 straight losses
No filed injury reports or practice statuses for either team, plus Nix only has 100% snap share in 2 of last 3 games (Stidham 1 game), leaving QB health and KC line/receiver availability unclear
T2_informed informed sample 3 · p(home) 53.0%
KC home offense -0.117 EPA/play, 38.4% success over trailing 8 games
DEN away defense -0.052 EPA/play and DEN won @KC 20-13 in trailing results
Wind 15 mph gusting to 30 mph at Arrowhead; KC LT Josh Simmons likely out per 2026-09-08 report
No Week 1 injury reports filed; DEN S Talanoa Hufanga only 2% snap share over last 3 games
Market spread KC -3 implies ~58% home win vs form/head-to-head gap
Whether Mahomes' poor trailing form (-0.117 EPA/play) is injury-related and how the weakened KC line holds up in 30 mph gusts without Simmons, plus missing full injury status for both sides
T2_informed informed sample 4 · p(home) 49.0%
KC home offense EPA/play -0.117 with 38.4% success rate over trailing 8 games
DEN away defense EPA allowed -0.052 and offense EPA/play +0.024 over trailing 8 away games
Denver won last meeting @ KC 20-13; KC enters on 0-5 skid including that home loss
KC LT Josh Simmons trending out (news 2026-09-08) with no injury report filed this week
Wind 15 mph gusting to 30 at 92F exceeds the ~10 mph threshold, suppressing passing on a low 43.5 total
No practice-status injury reports filed for either team this week, leaving unknown availability for multiple starters beyond Simmons, and the 8-game/3-game snap samples are thin for Week 1 form
slate_diag blind sample 0 · p(home) 43.0%
DEN away off EPA +0.024 vs KC -0.117
DEN def EPA -0.052 vs KC -0.023
Wind 15 mph gusts 30 mph at Arrowhead
KC missing LT Josh Simmons likely; Mahomes starts
High wind reducing passing efficiency for both QBs
Market line history
captured (UTC)
spread (home)
total
home ML
away ML
de-vigged p(home)
2026-09-10 03:32 UTC
+3.0
43.5
-155
+130
58.3%
2026-09-10 13:25 UTC
+2.5
43.5
-148
+124
57.2%
2026-09-12 11:12 UTC
+2.5
43.5
-142
+120
56.3%
2026-09-12 23:57 UTC
+2.5
43.5
-135
+114
55.1%
2026-09-14 12:12 UTC
+2.5
43.5
-130
+110
54.3%
2026-09-14 19:07 UTC
+2.5
43.5
-135
+114
55.1%
2026-09-14 20:42 UTC
+2.5
42.5
-130
+110
54.3%
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
Wind at or above 10 mph. Measured on this warehouse, games in the 10–15 mph bucket landed about 1.7 points under the market total (n=403). That is a totals signal, not a win-probability one.
Availability impact
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.