Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 1 (REG) · Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_01_NYJ_TEN
Final: NYJ 23 – TEN 10 (home lost).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T2_informed | blind | identified | 2026-09-10 05:19 UTC | 5/5 | 64.0% | 9.0 pp | 0.650, 0.620, 0.700, 0.640, 0.610 | 53.2% | ▲ +10.8 pp |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-09-10 05:21 UTC | 5/5 | 56.0% | 2.0 pp | 0.550, 0.570, 0.560, 0.560, 0.550 | 53.2% | ▲ +2.8 pp |
| slate_diag | blind | identified | 2026-09-10 14:49 UTC | 1/1 | 65.0% | 0.0 pp | 0.650 | 53.2% | ▲ +11.8 pp |
| T2_informed | blind | identified | 2026-09-11 22:22 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 53.2% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-09-11 22:23 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 53.2% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-09-13 15:54 UTC | 5/5 | 57.0% | 2.0 pp | 0.570, 0.570, 0.550, 0.560, 0.570 | 51.7% | ▲ +5.3 pp |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v2, mode game.
Biggest uncertainty: Overhauled rosters and QB switch from Allen/Cook to Ward/Smith make trailing 8-game EPA and snap-share data noisy; also actual game-day status of doubtful CB Ponds and RB Nwangwu, and whether Jets' depleted slot CB (Brownlee) can cover Tennessee's passing game
Data gaps: 2026-season EPA or snap data for current starters Ward and Smith, Confirmation of doubtful players Ponds and Nwangwu playing or sitting, Defensive scheme details for Saleh/Glenn and offensive line health beyond listed injuries, Impact of DT Jeffery Simmons' 0% snap share in trailing 3 games on current defensive rotation
Biggest uncertainty: Listed starters Ward/Smith conflict with trailing-3 snap shares (Cook 100% NYJ, Allen 91% TEN), plus unrated doubtful impacts for Jets CB Ponds and RB Nwangwu
Data gaps: DT Jeffery Simmons shown at 0% snap share with no injury listing, Quantified coverage/disruption metrics referenced in news but not in dossier, Actual 2026 roster continuity and snap roles for listed starters Ward and Smith, Rookie David Bailey's expected snap share/role mentioned in news
Biggest uncertainty: Both teams have overhauled rosters and are starting QBs who barely appear in recent snap shares (Ward/Allen, Smith/Cook), so the 8-game EPA sample and 0-5 vs 2-3 recent records are weak predictors of current strength
Data gaps: No current-season EPA/play or success-rate data, Jeffery Simmons has 0% snap share over last 3 games but is absent from the injury report, No spread-value ratings provided for doubtful CB D'Angelo Ponds and RB Kene Nwangwu, Geno Smith and Cam Ward lack meaningful recent game snap-share entries in the dossier
Biggest uncertainty: Geno Smith returns after Brady Cook started the last 3 games (100% snap share), and Jeffery Simmons has 0% snap share over 3 games but is not on the injury report, leaving both QB transitions and TEN's defensive front strength unclear
Data gaps: Jeffery Simmons actual availability/status despite 0% snap share, 2026 defensive pressure/disruption metrics for both units, Geno Smith's recent performance/health after missing time, Impact of 92F heat on rotation and conditioning
Biggest uncertainty: Listed starters Ward/Smith conflict with trailing-3-game snap leaders Allen (91%, 1g) and Cook (100%, 3g), and DT Simmons is at 0% snaps (3g) with no injury-report entry, so true current-roster strength is unclear.
Data gaps: 2026-specific EPA/play for current QBs Ward and Smith, Active status and role of DT Jeffery Simmons (0% snaps, 3g), Game-day snap counts/status for doubtful CB Ponds and RB Nwangwu, Scheme/volume adjustments under new head coaches Saleh and Glenn not in trailing-8 form
No Week 1 injury report filed, so Simmons' availability and the full health/transition of both listed starters (Ward/Smith) are unconfirmed; recent snap shares show backup QBs took heavy reps, adding variance.
Starting QB continuity and missing Week 1 injury reports—TEN DT Simmons at 0% snap share (3g) and no official Q/D/O designations for either side
No injury reports filed and recent snap shares conflict with listed starters (Cook/Allen high usage vs Smith/Ward named), so actual QB health and defensive availability (Simmons) are unclear
The performance impact of the QB changes (Smith for Cook, Ward for Allen) with no dossier EPA or snap data for the new starters, plus missing injury reports leaving Simmons' status (0% defensive snaps over last 3 games) unknown
Official injury reports are missing, so true availability of Simmons, Ward, and Smith is unclear, and Week 1 variance is high with returning starters after backup-heavy recent samples
Actual availability and readiness of listed starting QBs Cam Ward and Geno Smith versus recent backups Brandon Allen and Brady Cook, compounded by missing official Week 1 injury reports for both teams
Both named starters are absent from trailing 3-game snap shares and no injury reports are filed, so current offensive quality and defensive availability (especially Simmons) are largely unknown
No Week 1 injury report and zero trailing-game sample for current QBs Ward and Smith, so QB quality and Simmons' availability are unmeasured
How much the returning starters (Smith, Ward) and missing players (Simmons) shift team quality away from the backup-driven trailing 8-game EPA figures, especially with no this-week injury report filed
Both teams start QBs (Cam Ward, Geno Smith) not present in the trailing snap-share and EPA data, and no Week 1 injury report is filed, leaving Simmons's status and other availability unknown
Whether NYJ offense can score against TEN defense given poor EPA
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 03:32 UTC | +1.5 | 38.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-09-11 22:32 UTC | +1.5 | 38.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-09-12 01:12 UTC | +1.5 | 38.5 | -120 | +100 | 52.2% |
| 2026-09-12 01:27 UTC | +1.5 | 38.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-09-13 02:42 UTC | +1.5 | 38.5 | -120 | +100 | 52.2% |
| 2026-09-13 11:52 UTC | +1.5 | 38.5 | -118 | -102 | 51.7% |
| 2026-09-13 16:47 UTC | +1.5 | 39.5 | -118 | -102 | 51.7% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
92°F, wind 3 mph (gusts 4), precip 0.00 in, humidity 46% — forecast.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LB Cedric Gray | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.42 | 66% | high |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE Joseph Ossai | Out | Foot | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.58 | 58% | medium |
| WR Tim Patrick | Out | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.58 | 45% | medium |
| RB Kene Nwangwu | Doubtful | Back | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB D'Angelo Ponds | Doubtful | Calf | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |