NFL forecast log

Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.

JAX @ DEN

2026 Week 2 (REG) · Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High (outdoors) · 2026_02_JAX_DEN

Final: JAX 13 – DEN 20 (home won).

model p(home)44.0%informed

market p(home)57.2%as recorded with the forecast

edge▼ -13.2 ppplay JAX

Probability history

run	pass	arm	captured (UTC)	k ok	median	sample spread	samples	market	edge
T3_final	informed	identified	2026-09-20 19:31 UTC	3/3	44.0%	2.0 pp	0.460, 0.440, 0.440	57.2%	▼ -13.2 pp

Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.

What the model said — T3_final informed pass

sample 0 · p(home) 46.0% · confidence medium

JAX away form net EPA/play +0.287 (off +0.133, def -0.154) vs DEN home net +0.013 (off -0.032, def -0.045) over trailing 8 games
DEN missing Mims (35% snap) and Harvey (44% snap) => 0.55 pts spread value lost; JAX near full strength with only 0.05 pts lost and all key players active
Market moved toward JAX: spread DEN -3 to -2.5, moneyline DEN -155 to -148
Recent results: JAX 4-1 including 34-20 win @DEN; DEN offense scored 10 vs KC and 7 vs NE in recent losses
Rest edge JAX 7d vs DEN 6d; weather neutral (91F, wind 4 mph gusts 3, precip 0)

Biggest uncertainty: How much the 8-game home/away EPA splits carry over with roster turnover, and Denver's actual replacement-level production at RB/WR with Harvey and Mims out

Data gaps: Denver replacement RB/WR snap allocations (Coleman/Dobbins split) with Harvey/Mims inactive, Correct defensive snap share for CB Patrick Surtain II (listed off 1%) and full Denver secondary rotation, JAX defensive front-seven and pass-rush snap shares beyond the listed 82-83% starters

sample 1 · p(home) 44.0% · confidence medium

JAX away form (8g): off EPA/play +0.133, def EPA -0.154 vs DEN home (8g): off -0.032, def -0.045
DEN confirmed out: WR Mims (35% snaps) + RB Harvey (44% snaps) => ~0.83 pts lost; JAX key players (Meyers, Thomas, Allen, Van Lanen, Oluokun) all ACTIVE
Market moved toward JAX: spread DEN -3 -> -2.5, ML -155 -> -148 (~59.7% -> ~59%)
JAX won most recent meeting @ DEN 34-20 and is 4-1 in trailing 5 vs DEN 3-2
Weather negligible (wind 4 mph, 91F) and rest near-equal (DEN 6d, JAX 7d)

Biggest uncertainty: The trailing-8-game EPA samples mix prior-season rosters and the dossier contains an anomalous CB Patrick Surtain II 'off 1%' snap share, so true current defensive matchups and Denver's replacement-level offense are unclear.

Data gaps: 2026-only home/away EPA splits (not blended 8-game trailing), Denver replacement RB/WR efficiency with Harvey/Mims out, Clarification on Surtain snap-share categorization and actual defensive personnel, Specific schematic/coverage data for this matchup beyond the 32.4% man-coverage note

sample 2 · p(home) 44.0% · confidence medium

JAX away form (8g): off EPA/play +0.133, def EPA -0.154 vs DEN home off -0.032, def -0.045
DEN confirmed out: WR Mims (35% snaps, +0.43 pts) and RB Harvey (44% snaps, +0.40 pts); JAX core (Allen, Meyers, Thomas, Van Lanen) active
Market moved toward JAX: spread DEN -3 -> -2.5, ML -155 -> -148 by Sun 09-20
JAX won last meeting @ DEN 34-20 in trailing 5-game results
Weather neutral: 91F, wind 4 mph, precip 0.00 in; no indoor/altitude adjustment in dossier

Biggest uncertainty: Whether Denver's defense can adjust at home to slow JAX's +0.133 EPA/play offense without Mims/Harvey to sustain drives, and how much altitude/home field offsets the ~0.27 net EPA/play form gap

Data gaps: QB-specific EPA or pressure/sack rates for Nix and Lawrence, Special teams efficiency or hidden yardage metrics, Detailed O-line health beyond snap shares (e.g., Harrison/VAN Lanen practice limitations), Quantified altitude/home-field value for Empower Field

Market line history

captured (UTC)	spread (home)	total	home ML	away ML	de-vigged p(home)
2026-09-10 03:32 UTC	+3.0	43.5	-155	+130	58.3%
2026-09-13 22:57 UTC	+2.5	43.5	-142	+120	56.3%
2026-09-14 12:12 UTC	+2.5	43.5	-148	+124	57.2%
2026-09-14 13:37 UTC	+2.5	44.5	-148	+124	57.2%
2026-09-14 21:17 UTC	+2.5	44.5	-142	+120	56.3%
2026-09-14 23:17 UTC	+2.5	44.5	-148	+124	57.2%
2026-09-15 04:07 UTC	+2.5	44.5	-135	+114	55.1%
2026-09-15 17:01 UTC	+2.5	43.5	-135	+114	55.1%
2026-09-15 18:47 UTC	+2.5	44.5	-142	+120	56.3%
2026-09-15 23:52 UTC	+3.0	45.5	-155	+130	58.3%
2026-09-16 09:12 UTC	+2.5	45.5	-148	+124	57.2%
2026-09-18 21:22 UTC	+2.5	45.5	-142	+120	56.3%
2026-09-18 23:01 UTC	+2.5	45.5	-148	+124	57.2%
2026-09-19 21:22 UTC	+3.0	45.5	-155	+130	58.3%
2026-09-20 12:52 UTC	+2.5	45.5	-148	+124	57.2%

Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.

Kickoff weather

91°F, wind 4 mph (gusts 3), precip 0.00 in, humidity 7% — forecast.

Availability impact

Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.

DEN — 0.55 expected points lost

player	status	injury	practice	value	snaps	confidence
WR Marvin Mims Jr.	Out	Foot	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.43	35%	medium
RB RJ Harvey	Questionable	Hamstring	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.40	44%	medium

JAX — 0.05 expected points lost

player	status	injury	practice	value	snaps	confidence
RB LeQuint Allen Jr.	Questionable	Hip	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.16	22%	medium