NFL forecast log

Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.

SEA @ ARI

2026 Week 2 (REG) · Sun Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · State Farm Stadium (closed) · 2026_02_SEA_ARI

Final: SEA 31 – ARI 7 (home lost).

model p(home)43.0%informed

market p(home)34.3%as recorded with the forecast

edge▲ +8.7 ppplay ARI

Probability history

run	pass	arm	captured (UTC)	k ok	median	sample spread	samples	market	edge
T3_final	informed	identified	2026-09-20 19:47 UTC	3/3	43.0%	5.0 pp	0.450, 0.400, 0.430	34.3%	▲ +8.7 pp

Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.

What the model said — T3_final informed pass

sample 0 · p(home) 45.0% · confidence medium

SEA QB Darnold out (avail impact +6.31 pts, 98% snaps) and G Bradford out (+0.64); total SEA expected points lost 7.63 vs ARI 1.52
ARI home defense EPA +0.133/play (poor) over trailing 8 games, missing CB Williams (out, 0.78 pts, 78% snaps) and DT Billings (out, 0.37 pts)
SEA away defense EPA -0.126/play (strong) over trailing 8 games, nearly intact (Emmanwori active, only Okada out +0.32 pts)
ARI offense EPA -0.013/play with Brissett 100% snaps (3g); SEA offense EPA +0.050/play but now Lock starts behind line missing Bradford
Market spread SEA -3.5 (moved from ARI +5.5) on total 40.5; home win base rate 54.5%, favorite win base 66.4%

Biggest uncertainty: Lock's efficiency behind a reshuffled line (Haynes in for Bradford) against an Arizona defense missing Williams/Billings but still featuring Baker/Thompson, plus unknown roof/open-air conditions at 103°F

Data gaps: Roof status (retractable, undecided) — indoor vs outdoor changes heat/wind impact, Full game-day inactive/active confirmation for questionable ARI players Melton, Lopez, Seumalo, Adams, Love, Taylor-Demerson and SEA WR Horton beyond the listed inactives, Individual 2026 QB EPA for Brissett and Lock separated from team trailing-8 figures, Exact offensive skill-position snap shares and health for ARI RB Love (questionable ankle, wk 1) in this game

sample 1 · p(home) 40.0% · confidence medium

SEA away def EPA -0.126 vs ARI home off EPA -0.013 and def EPA +0.133 over trailing 8 games
Darnold out (+6.31 pts, 98% snaps) with Lock starting; SEA still 5-0 in trailing results but line moved ARI +5.5 → +3.5
ARI missing CB Williams (out, 78% snaps, +0.78) and DT Billings (out, +0.37); SEA missing G Bradford (out, +0.64) and S Okada (out, +0.32), but Emmanwori active
Rest differential SEA 11d vs ARI 7d; weather 103F with 8 mph wind (below 10 mph threshold) and roof undecided
Market moneyline ARI +170 / SEA -205 implies ~37% ARI win; total 40.5 signals low-scoring, defense-heavy script

Biggest uncertainty: How much Lock's 5-game win form closes the 6.31-pt Darnold absence gap, and whether the retractable roof stays open in 103F heat affecting late-game conditioning

Data gaps: Lock's individual EPA/play and snap-share distribution over SEA's trailing 5 wins, Final roof open/closed decision for State Farm Stadium, In-game snap counts for ARI questionable linemen (Seumalo, Adams) and CB Melton despite being active

sample 2 · p(home) 43.0% · confidence medium

SEA QB Sam Darnold confirmed out (DNP wk2) with dossier availability impact +6.31 pts; Drew Lock starts
SEA defense EPA allowed -0.126 vs ARI defense +0.133 over trailing 8 games; ARI offense EPA -0.013 vs SEA +0.050
Net expected availability loss: SEA 7.63 pts vs ARI 1.52 pts (Darnold/Bradford/Okada out vs Williams/Billings out)
Market line moved only 2 pts toward ARI (from +5.5 to +3.5) despite large SEA injury gap; closing spread SEA -3.5 / moneyline ARI +170
SEA rest advantage 11d vs ARI 7d; weather wind 8 mph (below 10 mph threshold) and 103F with retractable roof undecided

Biggest uncertainty: How much Drew Lock degrades SEA offense relative to Darnold (market priced ~2 pts, dossier prior ~6.3 pts) and whether the roof is open in extreme heat

Data gaps: Drew Lock's recent EPA/play or efficiency in relief/prior starts, Confirmed active status for ARI questionable OL Seumalo/Adams and CB Melton (not in reported inactives but practice was limited), State Farm Stadium roof open/closed decision at kickoff given 103F forecast

Market line history

captured (UTC)	spread (home)	total	home ML	away ML	de-vigged p(home)
2026-09-13 23:12 UTC	-5.5	43.5	+210	-258	30.9%
2026-09-14 00:22 UTC	-5.5	43.5	+205	-250	31.5%
2026-09-14 00:42 UTC	-5.5	42.5	+205	-250	31.5%
2026-09-14 00:57 UTC	-4.5	42.5	+190	-230	33.1%
2026-09-14 01:42 UTC	-4.5	41.5	+190	-230	33.1%
2026-09-14 02:42 UTC	-4.5	42.5	+185	-225	33.6%
2026-09-14 02:52 UTC	-4.5	41.5	+185	-225	33.6%
2026-09-15 23:52 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+185	-225	33.6%
2026-09-16 02:27 UTC	-3.5	41.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-16 02:42 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-16 04:12 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+170	-205	35.5%
2026-09-16 17:22 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-16 17:42 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+170	-205	35.5%
2026-09-16 17:52 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-16 18:12 UTC	-3.5	41.5	+170	-205	35.5%
2026-09-16 22:52 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-17 05:17 UTC	-3.5	41.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-17 07:47 UTC	-3.5	41.5	+185	-225	33.6%
2026-09-17 08:12 UTC	-3.5	41.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-17 17:12 UTC	-3.5	41.5	+185	-225	33.6%
2026-09-18 02:12 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-19 08:42 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+170	-205	35.5%
2026-09-19 18:22 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-19 22:27 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+170	-205	35.5%
2026-09-20 11:52 UTC	-3.5	41.5	+170	-205	35.5%
2026-09-20 13:42 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+170	-205	35.5%
2026-09-20 16:42 UTC	-3.5	41.5	+180	-218	34.3%
2026-09-20 19:22 UTC	-3.5	40.5	+180	-218	34.3%

Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.

Kickoff weather

103°F, wind 8 mph (gusts 6), precip 0.00 in, humidity 20% — forecast.

Availability impact

Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.

ARI — 1.52 expected points lost

player	status	injury	practice	value	snaps	confidence
CB Garrett Williams	Out	Achilles	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.78	78%	high
G Isaac Seumalo	Questionable	Shoulder	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.67	95%	high
CB Max Melton	Questionable	Ankle	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.57	57%	medium
G Isaiah Adams	Questionable	Knee	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.41	58%	medium
DT Andrew Billings	Questionable	Knee	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.37	50%	medium
S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	Questionable	Ribs	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.23	36%	medium
DT Roy Lopez	Questionable	Groin	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.21	42%	medium
RB Jeremiyah Love	Questionable	Ankle	Limited Participation in Practice	unrated	n/a	n/a

SEA — 7.63 expected points lost

player	status	injury	practice	value	snaps	confidence
QB Sam Darnold	Out	Glute	Did Not Participate In Practice	+6.31	98%	high
G Anthony Bradford	Out	Knee	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.64	90%	high
WR Tory Horton	Questionable	Hamstring	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.64	48%	medium
S Nick Emmanwori	Questionable	Ankle	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.54	86%	high
S Ty Okada	Out	Hamstring	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.32	52%	medium