NFL forecast log

• DAL home off EPA/play +0.086 vs WAS away -0.013 over trailing 8 games
• DAL def EPA allowed +0.254 vs WAS +0.127 (~0.127/play worse)
• Market closing: DAL -3.5 spread (moved from -4.5), ML -218 (~66% raw implied); divergence with spread
• Injury prior net ~0.07 pts worse for DAL: DAL 1.21 pts lost (Hooker 89% snaps +0.56, Overshown 76% +0.47) vs WAS 1.14 pts lost (Luvu 97% +0.60, Okonkwo 62% +0.41, Kinlaw Q 0.3-weighted +0.14)
• Weather negligible: 89F, wind 5 mph, roof retractable/undecided

Biggest uncertainty: Kinlaw's actual game-day status (questionable, limited wk2 practice) and whether the AT&T roof is open, plus thin 8-game form sample

Data gaps: WAS ESPN game-day inactive list missing (Kinlaw confirmation), Roof open/closed decision at AT&T Stadium, Replacement snap shares and defensive pressure/blitz rates for missing LB/S

• DAL defense allowed +0.254 EPA/play over trailing 8 home games vs WAS away defense +0.127
• DAL missing S Hooker (89% snaps, +0.56 pts) and LB Overshown (76% snaps, +0.47 pts); expected availability loss 1.21 pts vs WAS 1.14 pts
• WAS missing LB Luvu (97% snaps, +0.60 pts) and TE Okonkwo (62% snaps, +0.41 pts); DT Kinlaw questionable (back, limited wk2, +0.47 pts prior)
• Daniels played only 1 of last 3 games (100% snap share in 1g) vs Prescott presumably full-time; WAS offense -0.013 EPA/play away
• Market line moved DAL -4.5 → -3.5 with closing ML DAL -218 (~68.6%), but spread implies closer to ~60% win prob

Biggest uncertainty: Jayden Daniels' rust/health after only 1 game in last 3, whether questionable DT Javon Kinlaw plays, and the impact of multiple WAS defenders (Armstrong, Chaisson, Oweh, Payne) being limited in practice with no designation

Data gaps: Actual game-day activation for Kinlaw and other WAS limited-practice defenders, Prescott's snap share and health over the trailing 3 games (not listed in DAL snap share), Whether the AT&T retractable roof is open in 89°F heat, Season-to-date (not trailing-8-game) EPA/play splits for both teams

• DAL home offense EPA/play +0.086 vs WAS away -0.013 over trailing 8 games
• DAL defense EPA allowed +0.254 (poor) vs WAS +0.127; DAL missing S Hooker (+0.56, 89% snaps) and LB Overshown (+0.47, 76% snaps) for expected 1.21 pts lost
• WAS missing LB Luvu (+0.60, 97% snaps) and TE Okonkwo (+0.41, 62% snaps) with DT Kinlaw questionable (0.3-weighted +0.14) for expected 1.14 pts lost
• Market spread DAL -3.5 (down from -4.5) with moneyline -218 implying ~66% win, but spread moved toward WAS
• Weather 89F/5 mph wind negligible; roof retractable undecided but indoor conditions likely

Biggest uncertainty: Jayden Daniels has only 1 game at 100% snap share in the trailing 3-game sample, so his current health and form are unclear despite being named starter; also the 8-game EPA samples mix prior-season games, reducing predictive weight for current rosters.

Data gaps: Roof open/closed decision at AT&T Stadium, Exact WAS inactives beyond reported Luvu/Okonkwo absences, Jayden Daniels' practice participation and health details beyond starter designation, Dallas TE Luke Schoonmaker's game-day status (DNP wk1, no designation), Defensive scheme adjustments for missing high-snap linebackers and safeties on both sides