NFL forecast log

Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.

ATL @ GB

2026 Week 3 (REG) · Thu Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field (outdoors) · 2026_03_ATL_GB

Final: ATL 35 – GB 14 (home lost).

model p(home)67.0%informed

market p(home)71.4%as recorded with the forecast

edge▼ -4.4 ppplay ATL

Probability history

run	pass	arm	captured (UTC)	k ok	median	sample spread	samples	market	edge
T1_open	blind	identified	2026-09-22 16:01 UTC	5/5	60.0%	4.0 pp	0.600, 0.600, 0.580, 0.580, 0.620	71.4%	▼ -11.4 pp
T1_open	informed	identified	2026-09-22 16:03 UTC	5/5	67.0%	4.0 pp	0.670, 0.670, 0.690, 0.660, 0.650	71.4%	▼ -4.4 pp
T3_final	informed	identified	2026-09-24 23:30 UTC	0/3	n/a	0.0 pp	none parsed	67.5%	n/a
T2_informed	informed	identified	2026-09-25 22:01 UTC	0/5	n/a	0.0 pp	none parsed	66.9%	n/a

Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.

What the model said — T1_open informed pass

sample 0 · p(home) 67.0% · confidence medium

GB home def EPA +0.088 (poor) vs ATL away off EPA -0.100 over trailing 8 games
ATL availability prior 12.07 pts lost vs GB 1.38 pts; Penix listed Out (5.32 pts) but 09-21 news confirms he starts, cutting effective ATL loss
Wind 12 mph gusts to 20 at Lambeau outdoor grass, suppressing passing efficiency
Line moved toward ATL: spread GB -7.5 → -6, moneyline GB -375 → -290
Penix first start in 10 months post-ACL; GB QB Love 100% snap share over 3 games

Biggest uncertainty: Penix's rust and mobility behind an ATL line missing T Cameron Williams (Out) and with Jake Matthews/Ryan Neuzil DNP, plus whether CB A.J. Terrell (DNP, Q) and DE Za'Darius Smith (DNP, Q) play

Data gaps: Actual in-game snap counts for ATL questionable O-linemen and defenders, Post-ACL performance/efficacy data for Penix (not in dossier), GB LB Lukas Van Ness concussion clearance and potential snap restriction

sample 1 · p(home) 67.0% · confidence medium

GB def EPA +0.088 (home 8g) vs ATL def EPA -0.023 (away 8g) — large defensive gap favoring ATL
ATL availability prior 12.07 pts lost vs GB 1.38; Penix listed Out but Full practice wk 2 and news-confirmed starter (2026-09-21), cutting real QB loss well below 5.32 pts
Wind 12 mph gusts 20 at outdoor Lambeau; GB pass rate 56.8%, ATL 52.6% — suppresses passing for both
Market moved GB -7.5 → -6 / ML -375 → -290 (vig-removed ~0.714); I stay below that because ATL defense is strong and line already adjusted ~1.5 pts for Penix return
ATL off EPA -0.100 / success 41.2% vs GB off EPA -0.003 / success 43.4% (trailing 8g)

Biggest uncertainty: Penix's true readiness after 10-month ACL absence despite Full practice and being named starter; also whether GB questionable defenders Van Ness (concussion, limited) and Hargrave (knee, DNP/doubtful) play

Data gaps: Confirmed in-game snap counts and performance for all questionable/out players, Actual backup QB plan for ATL if Penix is limited (Tagovailoa doubtful DNP wk 2; Cousins 100% snap in 1 of last 3 games), Quantified wind effect on deep passing and kicking at Lambeau for this specific forecast

sample 2 · p(home) 69.0% · confidence medium

GB availability impact only 1.38 pts lost (Brinson Out 0.33, Hargrave Doubtful 0.41, others Q) vs ATL prior 12.07 pts with Penix listed Out (5.32) but confirmed starting 09-21 after ACL; Tua Doubtful 6.31 pts
ATL away offense EPA/play -0.100 and success rate 41.2% over trailing 8 games; GB home offense -0.003 EPA/play with Love at 100% snap share (3g)
Wind 12 mph gusts 20 at Lambeau exceeds 10 mph threshold, suppressing passing for Penix in first start in 10 months (practice Full wk 2)
Spread moved GB -7.5 -> -6 and moneyline -375 -> -290 since 09-09, pricing in Penix return and ATL missing Bowman Out, Terrell Q (DNP wk 2), Za'Darius Q (DNP wk 2)
GB defense allows +0.088 EPA/play (poor) over trailing 8 home games, but ATL defense is stronger at -0.023 EPA/play away

Biggest uncertainty: Penix's actual effectiveness and rust level after ACL in windy conditions, plus whether Terrell and Lindstrom play given DNP/full practice splits

Data gaps: ATL QB snap distribution in Weeks 1-2 to confirm Cousins usage rate, Real-time gust impact on deep-ball accuracy for a debuting QB, Defensive scheme adjustments for GB without Hargrave/Brinson versus ATL without Bowman/Terrell

sample 3 · p(home) 66.0% · confidence medium

GB def EPA allowed +0.088 (poor) vs ATL off EPA -0.100 (poor), but ATL starts rusty QB Penix after 10-month ACL absence (news 2026-09-21 confirms debut)
ATL def EPA -0.023 (good) vs GB off EPA -0.003 (near neutral); GB at Lambeau on 4d rest
Availability prior GB 1.38 pts lost (Hargrave Doubtful, Brinson Out); ATL report lists 12.07 pts but Penix is confirmed playing (subtract ~5.32 Out weight) leaving ~2.0 pts at risk (Terrell DNP Q, Bowman Out, Lindstrom Q)
Wind 12 mph gusts 20 at outdoor grass venue; market corrected GB -7.5 -> -6 and ML -375 -> -290 toward ATL

Biggest uncertainty: Penix's effectiveness and rust in first action since Nov 2025 ACL tear, especially in 12 mph wind with questionable ATL blockers/receivers and missing CB Bowman/Terrell on defense

Data gaps: Week 3 practice designations for ATL (dossier lists wk 2 status only), Actual GB defensive performance and snap distribution without Hargrave (Doubtful) and Brinson (Out), Penix's 2026 preseason/game reps and current chemistry with Drake London (96.25 YPG with Penix in 2025 per news)

sample 4 · p(home) 65.0% · confidence medium

GB home def EPA +0.088 (poor) vs ATL away def EPA -0.023 (good)
ATL away off EPA -0.100 vs GB home off EPA -0.003; GB 1-4, ATL 3-2 in last 5
GB availability loss 1.38 pts; ATL prior 12.07 pts (Penix Out 5.32, Tua Doubtful 6.31) but Penix named starter
Wind 12 mph gusts 20 at outdoor Lambeau, suppressing pass game for rusty Penix
Market moved GB -7.5 → -6 / -375 → -290 (~1.5 pts toward ATL)

Biggest uncertainty: Penix's actual readiness after 10 months/ACL and contradiction between 'Out' designation, full wk-2 practice, and confirmed start; ATL O-line health (Matthews/Neuzil DNP, Williams out)

Data gaps: Current-week practice designations for Penix, Banks, Bako-Bewele, Terrell, Lindstrom, Actual in-game snap/status for ATL T Jake Matthews and C Ryan Neuzil, GB WR Jayden Reed status missing from injury report despite news of back injury

Earlier runs (1)

T1_open blind sample 0 · p(home) 60.0%

GB def EPA +0.088 vs ATL def EPA -0.023 over trailing 8 games
ATL off EPA -0.100 vs GB off EPA -0.003; ATL success rate 41.2% vs GB 43.4%
GB availability loss 1.38 pts vs ATL prior 12.07 pts (Penix listed Out but named starter; Tua Doubtful)
Wind 12 mph gusts 20 at outdoor Lambeau; GB pass rate 56.8%, ATL 52.6%
Penix first start in 10 months post-ACL (snap share absent); Love 100% last 3 games

Whether Penix is game-ready after ACL and how ATL's missing/non-designated pieces (Terrell DNP, Lindstrom concussion, Bowman/Smith out, Neuzil/Matthews DNP) affect line play and coverage

T1_open blind sample 1 · p(home) 60.0%

GB home base rate 54.5%; Love 100% snap share (3g) with offense near neutral (-0.003 EPA/play)
ATL offense -0.100 EPA/play and 41.2% success rate over trailing 8 away games
Wind 12 mph gusts 20 at outdoor Lambeau; GB pass rate 56.8%, ATL 52.6%
Availability prior GB 1.38 pts lost vs ATL 12.07 pts lost, but Penix (Full practice, listed Out) and Tagovailoa (DNP, Doubtful) resolve ~10 pts of ATL deficit
ATL defense allows -0.023 EPA/play but missing CB Bowman (Out, 80% snaps) and CB Terrell (Questionable, DNP, 97% snaps)

Penix's actual mobility and timing in his first start in 10 months post-ACL, despite Full practice and confirmed start, against GB's poor defense (+0.088 EPA allowed)

T1_open blind sample 2 · p(home) 58.0%

GB defense allowed +0.088 EPA/play over trailing 8 games vs ATL offense at -0.100 EPA/play
ATL availability prior lists 12.07 pts spread risk (incl. Penix Out 5.32, Tagovailoa Doubtful 4.73) but Penix is named starter with Full practice; GB expected loss only 1.38 pts
Wind 12 mph gusting to 20 mph at outdoor Lambeau suppresses passing (GB pass rate 56.8%, ATL 52.6%)
Penix returns after 10-month ACL absence with 0 2026 snaps; Love has 100% snap share over 3 games
ATL confirmed missing Bowman CB (Out), Williams T (Out); Terrell CB (Questionable, DNP) and Lindstrom G (Questionable, Full) uncertain

Michael Penix Jr.'s true availability and rust level after being listed Out despite Full practice and a 10-month layoff, plus whether ATL's no-designation linemen (Neuzil, Matthews, Smith) and Terrell actually play

T1_open blind sample 3 · p(home) 58.0%

GB home offense EPA/play -0.003 vs ATL away defense EPA/play -0.023; ATL offense EPA/play -0.100 vs GB defense +0.088
ATL availability prior expected loss 12.07 pts (includes Penix/Tua) but Penix practiced Full and news confirms start, cutting QB loss; GB expected loss only 1.38 pts
Wind 12 mph gusts to 20 at Lambeau suppresses passing for rusty Penix (10 months post-ACL, season debut) and Love (pass rate 56.8%)
ATL trailing form 3-2 with defense allowing -0.023 EPA, but GB snap-share core intact (Love/Rhyan/McKinney/Nixon ~100%)
Questionable ATL CB Terrell (DNP wk2) and missing CB Bowman (Out) weaken coverage vs GB passing; ATL line missing T Williams (Out) with Matthews/Neuzil DNP but playing

Penix's real-time effectiveness after 10 months away and ACL repair—practice was Full but game speed/rust and potential snap limit are unknown, and ATL's questionable linemen/CBs (Terrell DNP, Lindstrom concussion Full, Neuzil/Matthews/Smith DNP/no designation) could swing line/coverage quality either way

T1_open blind sample 4 · p(home) 62.0%

GB home offense EPA/play -0.003 vs ATL away defense EPA/play -0.023, but ATL missing CB Bowman (Out, 80% snaps) and CB Terrell (Q, DNP wk2, 97% snaps)
ATL away offense EPA/play -0.100 and 41.2% success rate facing GB defense allowing +0.088 EPA/play, with GB missing DT Brinson (Out) and DT Hargrave (Doubtful)
Availability prior: ATL expected points lost 12.07 vs GB 1.38; Penix practiced Full wk2 and is named starter despite 'Out' designation, but Tua is Doubtful (DNP) and ATL O-line/DL (Williams Out, Matthews/Neuzil DNP, Smith DNP) is depleted
Wind 12 mph gusting to 20 at outdoor Lambeau, suppressing passing for GB (56.8% pass rate) and ATL (52.6%)
Both teams on 4 days rest; ATL travels with QB Penix making first start in 10 months post-ACL

Penix's real-time readiness, rust, and protection behind an ATL offensive line missing multiple starters (Williams out; Matthews, Neuzil, Lindstrom questionable/no designation) in his first game back

Market line history

captured (UTC)	spread (home)	total	home ML	away ML	de-vigged p(home)
2026-09-10 03:32 UTC	+7.5	46.5	-375	+295	75.7%
2026-09-13 03:42 UTC	+7.5	46.5	-360	+285	75.1%
2026-09-13 04:57 UTC	+7.5	46.5	-375	+295	75.7%
2026-09-15 17:42 UTC	+5.5	45.5	-275	+225	70.4%
2026-09-15 20:12 UTC	+6.5	46.5	-310	+250	72.6%
2026-09-18 18:12 UTC	+6.5	46.5	-298	+240	71.8%
2026-09-20 22:52 UTC	+7.0	44.5	-325	+260	73.4%
2026-09-21 01:37 UTC	+7.0	44.5	-360	+285	75.1%
2026-09-21 02:12 UTC	+7.0	44.5	-325	+260	73.4%
2026-09-21 04:42 UTC	+7.0	44.5	-355	+280	74.8%
2026-09-21 04:57 UTC	+7.0	44.5	-345	+275	74.4%
2026-09-21 12:12 UTC	+7.0	44.5	-310	+250	72.6%
2026-09-21 12:22 UTC	+7.0	44.5	-345	+275	74.4%
2026-09-21 15:52 UTC	+7.0	43.5	-345	+275	74.4%
2026-09-21 16:12 UTC	+7.0	43.5	-340	+270	74.1%
2026-09-21 20:47 UTC	+6.5	43.5	-310	+250	72.6%
2026-09-21 21:12 UTC	+6.0	44.5	-305	+245	72.2%
2026-09-21 21:17 UTC	+6.5	44.5	-305	+245	72.2%
2026-09-21 21:42 UTC	+6.5	44.5	-298	+240	71.8%
2026-09-22 00:17 UTC	+6.5	44.5	-290	+235	71.4%
2026-09-22 02:52 UTC	+6.5	43.5	-298	+240	71.8%
2026-09-22 05:14 UTC	+6.0	44.5	-290	+235	71.4%
2026-09-22 12:12 UTC	+6.0	43.5	-290	+235	71.4%
2026-09-22 17:12 UTC	+6.0	44.5	-290	+235	71.4%
2026-09-22 21:52 UTC	+6.0	44.5	-278	+225	70.5%
2026-09-22 22:17 UTC	+6.0	43.5	-278	+225	70.5%
2026-09-23 01:07 UTC	+5.5	43.5	-278	+225	70.5%
2026-09-23 01:17 UTC	+5.5	43.5	-270	+220	70.0%
2026-09-23 06:52 UTC	+5.5	43.5	-265	+215	69.6%
2026-09-23 12:17 UTC	+5.5	43.5	-258	+210	69.1%
2026-09-23 14:12 UTC	+5.5	43.5	-265	+215	69.6%
2026-09-23 15:17 UTC	+5.5	43.5	-270	+220	70.0%
2026-09-23 15:57 UTC	+5.5	42.5	-258	+210	69.1%
2026-09-23 16:42 UTC	+5.5	42.5	-265	+215	69.6%
2026-09-23 16:52 UTC	+5.5	42.5	-258	+210	69.1%
2026-09-23 18:07 UTC	+4.5	42.5	-258	+210	69.1%
2026-09-23 20:22 UTC	+4.5	42.5	-230	+190	66.9%
2026-09-23 20:42 UTC	+4.5	42.5	-245	+200	68.1%
2026-09-23 21:12 UTC	+5.5	42.5	-245	+200	68.1%
2026-09-23 21:42 UTC	+5.5	42.5	-250	+205	68.5%
2026-09-24 03:42 UTC	+5.5	42.5	-245	+200	68.1%
2026-09-24 05:27 UTC	+4.5	42.5	-245	+200	68.1%
2026-09-24 21:42 UTC	+5.5	43.5	-245	+200	68.1%
2026-09-24 22:47 UTC	+4.5	43.5	-238	+195	67.5%
2026-09-24 23:47 UTC	+4.5	42.5	-230	+190	66.9%
2026-09-25 00:12 UTC	+4.5	42.5	-238	+195	67.5%
2026-09-25 00:27 UTC	+4.5	43.5	-230	+190	66.9%

Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.

Kickoff weather

60°F, wind 12 mph (gusts 20), precip 0.00 in, humidity 68% — forecast.

Wind at or above 10 mph. Measured on this warehouse, games in the 10–15 mph bucket landed about 1.7 points under the market total (n=403). That is a totals signal, not a win-probability one.

Availability impact

Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.

GB — 3.04 expected points lost

player	status	injury	practice	value	snaps	confidence
T Zach Bako-Bewele	Out	Knee	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.87	93%	high
WR Jayden Reed	Out	Neck	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.80	57%	medium
G Aaron Banks	Out	Knee	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.62	88%	high
CB Benjamin St-Juste	Questionable	Hamstring	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.54	54%	medium
LB Lukas Van Ness	Questionable	Concussion	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.42	42%	medium
DT Javon Hargrave	Questionable	Knee	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.41	55%	medium
DT Warren Brinson	Out	Calf	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.33	37%	medium
LB Ty'Ron Hopper	Questionable	Achilles	Limited Participation in Practice	+0.04	7%	medium
DT Anthony Campbell	Questionable	Ankle	Limited Participation in Practice	unrated	n/a	n/a

ATL — 12.08 expected points lost

player	status	injury	practice	value	snaps	confidence
QB Tua Tagovailoa	Doubtful	Oblique	Did Not Participate In Practice	+6.31	96%	high
QB Michael Penix Jr.	Out	Knee	Full Participation in Practice	+5.32	84%	high
CB A.J. Terrell	Questionable	Shoulder	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.96	97%	high
T Cameron Williams	Out	Ankle	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.75	80%	low
G Chris Lindstrom	Questionable	Concussion	Full Participation in Practice	+0.69	97%	high
CB Billy Bowman Jr.	Questionable	Achilles	Full Participation in Practice	+0.60	80%	medium
DE Za'Darius Smith	Questionable	Shoulder	Full Participation in Practice	+0.54	54%	medium
DE Samson Ebukam	Out	Hamstring	Did Not Participate In Practice	+0.44	44%	medium