Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · AT&T Stadium (closed) · 2026_08_ARI_DAL
Final: ARI 33 – DAL 30 (home lost).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:04 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 71.0% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:04 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 71.0% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:02 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 72.2% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 17:15 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 74.1% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 04:45 UTC | +10.5 | 47.5 | -550 | +410 | 81.2% |
| 2026-09-11 20:27 UTC | +10.5 | 47.5 | -535 | +400 | 80.8% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-20 22:12 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-22 15:57 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-22 21:12 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-23 20:52 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -298 | +240 | 71.8% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -298 | +240 | 71.8% |
| 2026-10-24 21:12 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-25 04:12 UTC | +6.5 | 51.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-25 22:17 UTC | +6.5 | 52.5 | -295 | +240 | 71.7% |
| 2026-10-25 23:17 UTC | +6.5 | 52.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-26 00:07 UTC | +6.5 | 52.5 | -298 | +240 | 71.8% |
| 2026-10-26 05:12 UTC | +6.0 | 52.5 | -270 | +220 | 70.0% |
| 2026-10-26 05:22 UTC | +6.0 | 53.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-26 07:57 UTC | +6.5 | 53.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-26 17:37 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -298 | +240 | 71.8% |
| 2026-10-26 18:57 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-26 22:27 UTC | +6.0 | 54.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-26 23:22 UTC | +6.0 | 54.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-27 00:22 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -298 | +240 | 71.8% |
| 2026-10-27 08:52 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-27 09:22 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -298 | +240 | 71.8% |
| 2026-10-27 12:07 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-27 12:48 UTC | +6.0 | 54.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-27 16:17 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -325 | +260 | 73.4% |
| 2026-10-27 21:07 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -330 | +265 | 73.7% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -330 | +265 | 73.7% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -330 | +265 | 73.7% |
| 2026-10-28 05:42 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-28 09:42 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -340 | +270 | 74.1% |
| 2026-10-28 11:42 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -345 | +275 | 74.4% |
| 2026-10-28 11:57 UTC | +6.5 | 54.5 | -340 | +270 | 74.1% |
| 2026-10-28 12:57 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -355 | +280 | 74.8% |
| 2026-10-28 21:42 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -340 | +270 | 74.1% |
| 2026-10-28 22:42 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -325 | +260 | 73.4% |
| 2026-10-29 01:12 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -340 | +270 | 74.1% |
| 2026-10-29 01:22 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -325 | +260 | 73.4% |
| 2026-10-29 19:57 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-30 21:27 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-31 14:12 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-11-01 04:12 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -325 | +260 | 73.4% |
| 2026-11-01 10:42 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-11-01 12:42 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -325 | +260 | 73.4% |
| 2026-11-01 16:22 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-11-01 16:57 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -325 | +260 | 73.4% |
| 2026-11-01 17:12 UTC | +7.0 | 54.5 | -340 | +270 | 74.1% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
50°F, wind 14 mph (gusts 29), precip 0.08 in, humidity 84% — forecast.
Wind at or above 10 mph. Measured on this warehouse, games in the 10–15 mph bucket landed about 1.7 points under the market total (n=403). That is a totals signal, not a win-probability one.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR George Pickens | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.17 | 81% | high |
| CB Joey Porter Jr. | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.94 | 94% | high |
| G Tyler Smith | Questionable | Thumb | Full Participation in Practice | +0.91 | 97% | high |
| CB Cobie Durant | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.75 | 75% | high |
| S Malik Hooker | Out | Forearm | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.56 | 89% | high |
| DT Kenny Clark | Questionable | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.49 | 65% | high |
| LB DeMarvion Overshown | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.47 | 76% | high |
| LB Dee Winters | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.43 | 69% | high |
| DT Jonathan Bullard | Questionable | Calf | Full Participation in Practice | +0.43 | 43% | medium |
| WR KaVontae Turpin | Out | Ribs | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.38 | 31% | medium |
| S P.J. Locke | Questionable | Foot | Full Participation in Practice | +0.37 | 59% | medium |
| WR Jonathan Mingo | Questionable | Illness | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.29 | 37% | medium |
| TE Luke Schoonmaker | Questionable | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.25 | 34% | medium |
| LB Marist Liufau | Questionable | Forearm | Full Participation in Practice | +0.21 | 33% | medium |
| RB Malik Davis | Out | Hip | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.18 | 21% | medium |
| T Drew Shelton | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Ameer Speed | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| DT LT Overton | Questionable | Foot | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB Garrett Williams | Out | Achilles | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.78 | 78% | high |
| C Hjalte Froholdt | Questionable | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.70 | 98% | high |
| G Isaac Seumalo | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.67 | 95% | high |
| S Budda Baker | Questionable | Groin | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 98% | high |
| CB Max Melton | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.57 | 57% | medium |
| S Andrew Wingard | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.46 | 74% | high |
| G Isaiah Adams | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.41 | 58% | medium |
| DT Walter Nolen | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.38 | 43% | medium |
| DT Andrew Billings | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.37 | 50% | medium |
| DT Darius Robinson | Questionable | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.37 | 50% | medium |
| LB Josh Sweat | Questionable | Not injury related - resting player | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.36 | 57% | medium |
| LB Zaven Collins | Questionable | Hip | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.32 | 51% | medium |
| S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | Out | Back | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.23 | 36% | medium |
| DT Roy Lopez | Questionable | Groin | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.21 | 42% | medium |
| G Jon Gaines II | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.14 | 20% | medium |
| S Kitan Crawford | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.09 | 14% | medium |
| QB Carson Beck | Questionable | Back | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| RB Jeremiyah Love | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| P Blake Gillikin | Questionable | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB Karson Sharar | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| S Wydett Williams Jr. | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |