Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_08_ATL_TB
Final: ATL 0 – TB 16 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:09 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 55.1% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:10 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 55.1% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:05 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 55.1% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 17:15 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 54.3% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 06:55 UTC | +4.5 | 46.5 | -225 | +185 | 66.4% |
| 2026-09-11 18:12 UTC | +4.5 | 46.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | +100 | 52.0% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | -102 | 51.7% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | +100 | 52.0% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | -102 | 51.7% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | +100 | 52.0% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | -102 | 51.7% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -118 | +100 | 52.0% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | -102 | 51.7% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -118 | +100 | 52.0% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | -102 | 51.7% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -118 | +100 | 52.0% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | -102 | 51.7% |
| 2026-10-25 21:22 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-10-25 22:17 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-10-26 01:42 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-10-26 04:22 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-10-26 04:52 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-10-26 12:12 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-10-26 12:52 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-10-26 14:22 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-10-26 14:52 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-26 15:12 UTC | +2.5 | 46.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-10-26 15:52 UTC | +2.5 | 46.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-27 22:12 UTC | +2.5 | 45.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +2.5 | 45.5 | -134 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +2.5 | 45.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +2.5 | 45.5 | -134 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +2.5 | 45.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +2.5 | 45.5 | -134 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-28 05:12 UTC | +2.5 | 45.5 | -142 | +120 | 56.3% |
| 2026-10-28 05:27 UTC | +2.5 | 45.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-28 16:42 UTC | +2.5 | 44.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-29 01:22 UTC | +2.5 | 44.5 | -142 | +120 | 56.3% |
| 2026-10-30 00:47 UTC | +2.5 | 43.5 | -142 | +120 | 56.3% |
| 2026-10-30 01:17 UTC | +2.5 | 44.5 | -142 | +120 | 56.3% |
| 2026-10-30 02:42 UTC | +2.5 | 43.5 | -142 | +120 | 56.3% |
| 2026-10-30 03:42 UTC | +2.5 | 44.5 | -142 | +120 | 56.3% |
| 2026-10-30 15:42 UTC | +2.5 | 43.5 | -142 | +120 | 56.3% |
| 2026-10-30 17:12 UTC | +2.5 | 43.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-30 17:47 UTC | +2.5 | 43.5 | -142 | +120 | 56.3% |
| 2026-10-30 18:42 UTC | +2.5 | 43.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-11-01 01:12 UTC | +2.5 | 43.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-11-01 02:42 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-11-01 02:47 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-11-01 09:12 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-11-01 11:42 UTC | +2.5 | 43.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-11-01 12:42 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-11-01 13:42 UTC | +2.5 | 43.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-11-01 17:12 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-11-01 17:57 UTC | +2.5 | 42.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
86°F, wind 13 mph (gusts 15), precip 0.00 in, humidity 45% — forecast.
Wind at or above 10 mph. Measured on this warehouse, games in the 10–15 mph bucket landed about 1.7 points under the market total (n=403). That is a totals signal, not a win-probability one.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Baker Mayfield | Questionable | Thumb | Full Participation in Practice | +6.56 | 98% | high |
| WR Jalen McMillan | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.89 | 68% | high |
| WR Emeka Egbuka | Out | Foot | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.85 | 78% | high |
| CB Jacob Parrish | Questionable | Not injury related - personal matter | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.72 | 72% | high |
| T Luke Goedeke | Questionable | Calf | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.68 | 96% | high |
| CB Benjamin Morrison | Doubtful | Quadricep | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.62 | 62% | medium |
| S Antoine Winfield Jr. | Out | Rib | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 96% | high |
| WR David Sills | Out | Hamstring | Full Participation in Practice | +0.56 | 52% | medium |
| LB SirVocea Dennis | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.51 | 82% | high |
| LB Christian Rozeboom | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.51 | 82% | high |
| T Justin Skule | Doubtful | Oblique | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.44 | 47% | medium |
| RB Kenny Gainwell | Questionable | Hip | Full Participation in Practice | +0.34 | 36% | medium |
| DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.27 | 55% | medium |
| RB Sean Tucker | Questionable | Quadricep | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.13 | 12% | medium |
| TE Ko Kieft | Out | Elbow | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.06 | 9% | medium |
| S Miles Killebrew | Questionable | Concussion | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB Rueben Bain Jr. | Out | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB Josiah Trotter | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Ayden Garnes | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Tua Tagovailoa | Doubtful | Oblique | Did Not Participate In Practice | +6.31 | 96% | high |
| QB Michael Penix Jr. | Out | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +5.32 | 84% | high |
| CB A.J. Terrell | Questionable | Groin | Full Participation in Practice | +0.96 | 97% | high |
| T Jake Matthews | Questionable | Groin | Full Participation in Practice | +0.92 | 97% | high |
| T Cameron Williams | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.75 | 80% | low |
| G Chris Lindstrom | Questionable | Concussion | Full Participation in Practice | +0.69 | 97% | high |
| CB C.J. Henderson | Questionable | Groin | Full Participation in Practice | +0.64 | 64% | low |
| CB Billy Bowman Jr. | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 80% | medium |
| WR Olamide Zaccheaus | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.57 | 47% | medium |
| DE Za'Darius Smith | Questionable | Neck | Full Participation in Practice | +0.54 | 54% | medium |
| LB Divine Deablo | Questionable | Forearm | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.52 | 84% | high |
| DT Gervon Dexter Sr. | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.49 | 65% | high |
| DE Samson Ebukam | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.44 | 44% | medium |
| T Michael Jerrell | Out | Biceps | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.39 | 42% | medium |
| DE Charles Snowden | Questionable | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.36 | 36% | medium |
| RB Brian Robinson | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.29 | 33% | medium |
| WR Beaux Collins | Questionable | Hip | Full Participation in Practice | +0.13 | 14% | medium |
| LB Yasir Abdullah | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.06 | 10% | medium |
| LB Kendal Daniels | Questionable | Neck | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Avieon Terrell | Questionable | Illness | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |