Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_08_BAL_BUF
Final: BAL 10 – BUF 36 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:02 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 62.2% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:02 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 62.2% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:01 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 60.9% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 17:16 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 59.3% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 03:32 UTC | +2.5 | 51.5 | -135 | +114 | 55.1% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | +2.5 | 53.5 | -142 | +120 | 56.3% |
| 2026-10-20 18:42 UTC | +2.5 | 53.5 | -146 | +124 | 57.1% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +2.5 | 52.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-21 18:12 UTC | +3.0 | 51.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +3.0 | 53.5 | -174 | +144 | 60.8% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +3.0 | 51.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +3.0 | 53.5 | -174 | +144 | 60.8% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +3.0 | 51.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-22 17:37 UTC | +3.0 | 52.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-22 19:12 UTC | +3.5 | 52.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-22 21:12 UTC | +3.0 | 52.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +3.0 | 53.5 | -174 | +144 | 60.8% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +3.0 | 52.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +3.0 | 53.5 | -174 | +144 | 60.8% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +3.0 | 52.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-24 20:12 UTC | +3.0 | 52.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +3.0 | 53.5 | -174 | +144 | 60.8% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +3.0 | 52.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-25 00:22 UTC | +3.0 | 52.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-26 01:42 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-26 01:52 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-26 03:42 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-26 03:52 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-26 08:12 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-26 12:12 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-26 13:42 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-26 17:52 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-26 18:27 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-26 22:57 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 12:07 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-27 16:17 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 18:12 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-27 19:12 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 21:07 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 21:37 UTC | +3.5 | 53.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 22:37 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -176 | +148 | 61.3% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -174 | +146 | 61.0% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -174 | +146 | 61.0% |
| 2026-10-28 03:12 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-28 03:22 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-28 03:42 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-28 04:12 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-28 04:52 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-28 05:12 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-28 21:57 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-29 00:12 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-29 13:07 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-30 01:52 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-30 23:42 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-31 03:52 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-31 04:12 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-31 13:27 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-31 13:42 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-31 15:12 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-31 16:42 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-31 19:12 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-31 20:42 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-11-01 00:42 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-01 05:42 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-01 05:52 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-01 10:42 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-01 11:17 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-01 12:17 UTC | +3.5 | 54.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-01 14:42 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-01 15:42 UTC | +3.0 | 54.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
64°F, wind 15 mph (gusts 33), precip 0.00 in, humidity 55% — forecast.
Wind at or above 10 mph. Measured on this warehouse, games in the 10–15 mph bucket landed about 1.7 points under the market total (n=403). That is a totals signal, not a win-probability one.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR DJ Moore | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.05 | 89% | high |
| CB Christian Benford | Questionable | Toe | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.94 | 94% | high |
| T Spencer Brown | Questionable | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.90 | 96% | high |
| WR Keon Coleman | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.88 | 67% | high |
| WR Josh Palmer | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.76 | 58% | medium |
| S Cole Bishop | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.64 | 64% | high |
| CB Dee Alford | Questionable | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.62 | 62% | high |
| WR Tyrell Shavers | Out | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.56 | 37% | medium |
| DE Ed Oliver | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.49 | 65% | high |
| TE Dalton Kincaid | Questionable | Chest | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.41 | 47% | medium |
| RB Ty Johnson | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.39 | 30% | medium |
| DE T.J. Sanders | Questionable | Shoulder | Full Participation in Practice | +0.31 | 42% | medium |
| RB Ray Davis | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.21 | 19% | medium |
| DT Greg Gaines | Questionable | Calf | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.19 | 37% | medium |
| CB Jordan Hancock | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.16 | 22% | medium |
| DE Landon Jackson | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.16 | 16% | low |
| G Ar'maj Reed-Adams | Questionable | Elbow | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB TJ Parker | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Lamar Jackson | Out | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +6.83 | 95% | high |
| WR Zay Flowers | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.10 | 81% | high |
| T Ronnie Stanley | Questionable | Toe | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.88 | 94% | high |
| CB Marlon Humphrey | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.87 | 87% | high |
| LB Trey Hendrickson | Out | Finger | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.69 | 69% | high |
| G John Simpson | Questionable | Groin | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.68 | 96% | high |
| C Ethan Pocic | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.67 | 96% | high |
| C Cam Jurgens | Out | Concussion | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.66 | 94% | high |
| DT Nnamdi Madubuike | Out | Neck | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.53 | 71% | high |
| WR Chris Moore | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.51 | 37% | medium |
| S Jaylinn Hawkins | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.47 | 75% | high |
| DE Broderick Washington | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.44 | 44% | medium |
| LB Teddye Buchanan | Out | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.44 | 71% | high |
| G Andrew Vorhees | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.42 | 59% | medium |
| LB Tavius Robinson | Out | Pectoral | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.32 | 52% | medium |
| WR Devontez Walker | Questionable | Groin | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.30 | 17% | medium |
| G Emery Jones Jr. | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.13 | 18% | low |
| CB T.J. Tampa | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.09 | 9% | medium |
| TE Matthew Hibner | Out | Hand | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| WR Ja'Kobi Lane | Questionable | Wrist | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| RB Adam Randall | Questionable | Neck | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| C Jovaughn Gwyn | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| G Olaivavega Ioane | Out | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |