Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Thu Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field (outdoors) · 2026_08_CAR_GB
Final: CAR 19 – GB 27 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:01 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 62.2% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:01 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 62.2% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-10-29 23:30 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 61.6% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:01 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 63.1% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 03:32 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -355 | +280 | 74.8% |
| 2026-09-11 19:57 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -345 | +275 | 74.4% |
| 2026-09-13 16:12 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -340 | +270 | 74.1% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | n/a | 45.5 | -158 | +134 | 58.9% |
| 2026-10-20 19:12 UTC | +3.0 | 45.5 | -158 | +134 | 58.9% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +2.5 | 46.5 | -148 | +124 | 57.2% |
| 2026-10-20 20:42 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-24 17:07 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-25 03:52 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-25 16:12 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-25 22:12 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -180 | +152 | 61.8% |
| 2026-10-26 00:07 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-26 01:42 UTC | +4.5 | 47.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-26 02:57 UTC | +4.5 | 47.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-26 03:42 UTC | +4.5 | 47.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-26 03:52 UTC | +4.5 | 47.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-26 05:42 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-26 12:12 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-26 22:42 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-27 03:22 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 03:52 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-27 16:42 UTC | +3.5 | 48.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-27 20:42 UTC | +3.5 | 48.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 21:07 UTC | +3.5 | 48.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-27 21:37 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -194 | +162 | 63.4% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -190 | +160 | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -190 | +160 | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-28 01:57 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-28 18:17 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-28 23:12 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-28 23:52 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 00:12 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-29 02:42 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 09:12 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 09:57 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 10:42 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 10:57 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 11:12 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 11:42 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 13:07 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 13:17 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-29 14:12 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 14:17 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 14:42 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-29 15:27 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 18:42 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-29 20:52 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-29 22:17 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-29 23:17 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-29 23:37 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-29 23:47 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-30 00:17 UTC | +3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
37°F, wind 8 mph (gusts 18), precip 0.00 in, humidity 56% — forecast.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T Zach Bako-Bewele | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.87 | 93% | high |
| WR Jayden Reed | Out | Neck | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.80 | 57% | medium |
| WR Matthew Golden | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.71 | 53% | medium |
| G Aaron Banks | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.62 | 88% | high |
| LB Zaire Franklin | Out | Shin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.60 | 98% | high |
| C Sean Rhyan | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.59 | 83% | high |
| CB Benjamin St-Juste | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.54 | 54% | medium |
| LB Edgerrin Cooper | Questionable | Shoulder | Full Participation in Practice | +0.49 | 79% | high |
| LB Lukas Van Ness | Questionable | Concussion | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.42 | 42% | medium |
| DT Javon Hargrave | Out | Achilles | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.41 | 55% | medium |
| DT Devonte Wyatt | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.36 | 48% | medium |
| DT Warren Brinson | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.33 | 37% | medium |
| LB Brenton Cox Jr. | Questionable | Quadricep | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.32 | 32% | medium |
| DT Jonathan Ford | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.18 | 25% | medium |
| WR Bo Melton | Questionable | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.18 | 18% | medium |
| RB Chris Brooks | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.18 | 20% | medium |
| WR Skyy Moore | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.15 | 13% | medium |
| DT Jordon Riley | Questionable | Achilles | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.14 | 27% | medium |
| WR Savion Williams | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.12 | 12% | medium |
| G Travis Glover | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.07 | 8% | medium |
| C Jacob Monk | Questionable | Quadricep | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.04 | 6% | medium |
| LB Ty'Ron Hopper | Questionable | Achilles | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.04 | 7% | medium |
| DT Anthony Campbell | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Brandon Cisse | Questionable | Hip | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| C Jager Burton | Questionable | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Jalen Coker | Questionable | Quadricep | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.04 | 69% | high |
| T Taylor Moton | Questionable | Lung | Full Participation in Practice | +0.88 | 93% | high |
| WR Xavier Legette | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.71 | 68% | high |
| G Damien Lewis | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.70 | 99% | high |
| S Nick Scott | Out | Rib | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.50 | 80% | high |
| DT Tershawn Wharton | Questionable | Neck | Full Participation in Practice | +0.48 | 64% | high |
| LB Devin Lloyd | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.48 | 76% | high |
| LB Jaelan Phillips | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.45 | 73% | high |
| LB Patrick Jones II | Questionable | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.32 | 51% | medium |
| DT Bobby Brown III | Questionable | Hand | Full Participation in Practice | +0.19 | 38% | medium |
| LB Claudin Cherelus | Out | Shoulder | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.13 | 22% | medium |
| G Torricelli Simpkins III | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.12 | 17% | medium |
| DT Cam Jackson | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.11 | 14% | medium |
| RB AJ Dillon | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.08 | 12% | medium |
| CB Akayleb Evans | Out | Triceps | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.06 | 6% | medium |
| RB Trevor Etienne | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.05 | 6% | medium |
| LB Bam Martin-Scott | Questionable | Hamstring | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| T Monroe Freeling | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| DT Lee Hunter | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB Thomas Incoom | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |