Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Mon Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET · Lumen Field (outdoors) · 2026_08_CHI_SEA
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:14 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 60.0% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:15 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 60.0% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:08 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 60.4% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | n/a | 46.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-20 19:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-20 20:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-21 11:07 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -158 | +134 | 58.9% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-23 06:52 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -158 | +134 | 58.9% |
| 2026-10-23 07:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -158 | +134 | 58.9% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -158 | +134 | 58.9% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-26 03:52 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-27 12:07 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-27 15:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -176 | +148 | 61.3% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -176 | +148 | 61.3% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -176 | +148 | 61.3% |
| 2026-10-28 05:27 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-29 19:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-31 21:57 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-01 00:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-01 01:17 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-01 02:47 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-01 05:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-01 05:52 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-01 07:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-01 13:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-01 14:52 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-02 01:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-02 01:52 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-02 02:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-02 05:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-11-02 06:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-02 06:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-11-02 06:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-02 07:37 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-11-02 09:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-02 09:17 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-11-02 12:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-02 12:57 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-11-02 13:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-11-02 14:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-11-02 15:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
52°F, wind 5 mph (gusts 9), precip 0.00 in, humidity 63% — forecast.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Sam Darnold | Out | Glute | Did Not Participate In Practice | +6.31 | 98% | high |
| QB Drew Lock | Questionable | Elbow | Limited Participation in Practice | +2.26 | 43% | medium |
| T Charles Cross | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.91 | 97% | high |
| WR Rashid Shaheed | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.65 | 63% | high |
| G Anthony Bradford | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.64 | 90% | high |
| WR Tory Horton | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.64 | 48% | medium |
| LB DeMarcus Lawrence | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 60% | medium |
| S Julian Love | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.58 | 93% | high |
| S Nick Emmanwori | Questionable | Hip | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.54 | 86% | high |
| RB Zach Charbonnet | Out | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.44 | 50% | medium |
| LB Uchenna Nwosu | Doubtful | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.33 | 53% | medium |
| S Ty Okada | Questionable | Hamstring | Full Participation in Practice | +0.32 | 52% | medium |
| LB Drake Thomas | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.23 | 37% | medium |
| DT Brandon Pili | Questionable | Back | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.08 | 17% | medium |
| LB Chazz Surratt | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.05 | 8% | medium |
| RB George Holani | Questionable | Ribs | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.04 | 8% | medium |
| LB Patrick O'Connell | Questionable | Toe | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.03 | 5% | medium |
| LB Connor O'Toole | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| RB Velus Jones Jr. | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| RB Jadarian Price | Out | Chest | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| WR Irvin Charles | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Julian Neal | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Caleb Williams | Questionable | Hamstring | Full Participation in Practice | +6.06 | 99% | high |
| WR Rome Odunze | Questionable | Calf | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.03 | 85% | high |
| CB Kyler Gordon | Questionable | Calf | Full Participation in Practice | +0.75 | 75% | high |
| CB Tyrique Stevenson | Questionable | Hip | Full Participation in Practice | +0.74 | 74% | high |
| T Braxton Jones | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.72 | 77% | high |
| DE Dayo Odeyingbo | Out | Quadricep | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.68 | 68% | high |
| LB T.J. Edwards | Doubtful | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.58 | 92% | high |
| S Xavier Woods | Questionable | Groin | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.56 | 89% | high |
| T Ozzy Trapilo | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.44 | 53% | medium |
| RB Kyle Monangai | Out | Thumb | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.38 | 41% | medium |
| QB Tyson Bagent | Questionable | Concussion | Full Participation in Practice | +0.35 | 6% | medium |
| S Cam Lewis | Doubtful | Hip | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.28 | 44% | medium |
| DE Shemar Turner | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.21 | 24% | low |
| LB Jack Sanborn | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.19 | 31% | medium |
| LB Noah Sewell | Questionable | Achilles | Full Participation in Practice | +0.19 | 30% | medium |
| LB D'Marco Jackson | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.15 | 24% | medium |
| LB Keyshaun Elliott | Out | Quadricep | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Malik Muhammad | Questionable | Toe | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |