Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_08_CLE_PIT
Final: CLE 6 – PIT 27 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:08 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 61.6% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:08 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 61.6% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:05 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 63.1% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 17:16 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 63.1% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 03:32 UTC | +6.0 | 39.5 | -258 | +210 | 69.1% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | +4.5 | 39.5 | -235 | +194 | 67.3% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-20 21:57 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -210 | +176 | 65.2% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -210 | +176 | 65.2% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -210 | +176 | 65.2% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -210 | +176 | 65.2% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -210 | +176 | 65.2% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +4.5 | 38.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-25 21:22 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-25 22:12 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-26 01:52 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-26 04:42 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-26 11:27 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-26 11:57 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-26 12:12 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-26 16:22 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-26 16:42 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-26 19:52 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-26 21:57 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-27 17:42 UTC | +3.0 | 39.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-27 18:12 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-27 18:42 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-27 19:42 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-27 21:37 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +3.0 | 39.5 | -194 | +164 | 63.5% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +3.0 | 39.5 | -188 | +158 | 62.7% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +3.0 | 39.5 | -188 | +158 | 62.7% |
| 2026-10-28 05:27 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-28 17:42 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 06:12 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-29 11:27 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-29 21:27 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-29 21:37 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-31 13:27 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-31 13:42 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-31 13:52 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-31 16:22 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-31 16:52 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-31 18:42 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-31 19:12 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-31 19:22 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-31 20:22 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-31 20:52 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-31 21:12 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 06:12 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 06:27 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 06:42 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 09:12 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 10:22 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 10:42 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 11:42 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 11:47 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 12:52 UTC | +3.5 | 39.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 14:42 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-11-01 17:12 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-11-01 17:22 UTC | +3.5 | 38.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
72°F, wind 10 mph (gusts 30), precip 0.00 in, humidity 44% — forecast.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Michael Pittman | Out | Foot | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.99 | 87% | high |
| CB Jalen Ramsey | Questionable | Wrist | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.96 | 96% | high |
| CB Joey Porter Jr. | Out | Not injury related - other | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.94 | 94% | high |
| T Troy Fautanu | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.93 | 99% | high |
| CB Jamel Dean | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.80 | 80% | high |
| S DeShon Elliott | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.53 | 85% | high |
| RB Rico Dowdle | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.53 | 56% | medium |
| TE Pat Freiermuth | Questionable | Calf | n/a | +0.51 | 60% | high |
| RB Jaylen Warren | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.46 | 48% | medium |
| DT Keeanu Benton | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.45 | 61% | high |
| CB Brandin Echols | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.42 | 42% | medium |
| WR Roman Wilson | Out | Finger | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.37 | 31% | medium |
| DT Yahya Black | Questionable | Not injury related - personal matter | n/a | +0.36 | 36% | medium |
| WR Ben Skowronek | Questionable | Calf | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.23 | 15% | medium |
| CB Doneiko Slaughter | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| G Gennings Dunker | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Dillon Gabriel | Out | Back | Full Participation in Practice | +2.80 | 56% | medium |
| T Tytus Howard | Questionable | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.91 | 96% | high |
| CB Tyson Campbell | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.90 | 90% | high |
| CB Denzel Ward | Questionable | Hand | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.79 | 79% | high |
| C Elgton Jenkins | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.66 | 94% | high |
| LB Carson Schwesinger | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 97% | high |
| S Grant Delpit | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 96% | high |
| LB Quincy Williams | Questionable | Neck | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.59 | 95% | high |
| CB Noah Igbinoghene | Questionable | Hand | n/a | +0.59 | 59% | medium |
| DT Mason Graham | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.55 | 73% | high |
| G Teven Jenkins | Out | Back | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.49 | 52% | medium |
| CB Myles Harden | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.46 | 46% | medium |
| RB Quinshon Judkins | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.40 | 50% | medium |
| WR Tylan Wallace | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.37 | 26% | medium |
| DE Derek Barnett | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.35 | 35% | medium |
| DT Kalia Davis | Out | Quadricep | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.29 | 39% | medium |
| DT Mike Hall Jr. | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.28 | 37% | medium |
| RB Dylan Sampson | Out | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.22 | 26% | medium |
| S Daniel Thomas | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.06 | 9% | medium |
| C Parker Brailsford | Questionable | Thumb | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| TE Carsen Ryan | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |