Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_08_IND_JAX
Final: IND 7 – JAX 42 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:06 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 76.6% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:06 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 76.6% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:03 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 80.0% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 17:16 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 79.6% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 03:32 UTC | +4.5 | 49.5 | -225 | +185 | 66.4% |
| 2026-09-13 16:12 UTC | +4.5 | 49.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -390 | +310 | 76.5% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -375 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -390 | +310 | 76.5% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -375 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -390 | +310 | 76.5% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -375 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-22 20:22 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -360 | +285 | 75.1% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -390 | +310 | 76.5% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -360 | +285 | 75.1% |
| 2026-10-23 19:52 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -375 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -390 | +310 | 76.5% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -375 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -390 | +310 | 76.5% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -375 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-24 22:42 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -360 | +285 | 75.1% |
| 2026-10-25 16:12 UTC | +7.5 | 47.5 | -375 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-25 21:22 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -345 | +275 | 74.4% |
| 2026-10-26 01:42 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -355 | +280 | 74.8% |
| 2026-10-26 04:22 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -360 | +285 | 75.1% |
| 2026-10-26 05:12 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -380 | +300 | 76.0% |
| 2026-10-26 10:42 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -375 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-26 10:52 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -380 | +300 | 76.0% |
| 2026-10-26 12:12 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -360 | +285 | 75.1% |
| 2026-10-26 19:12 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -375 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-26 23:22 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -395 | +310 | 76.6% |
| 2026-10-27 17:12 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -410 | +320 | 77.2% |
| 2026-10-27 18:12 UTC | +8.5 | 46.5 | -425 | +330 | 77.7% |
| 2026-10-27 20:22 UTC | +9.5 | 46.5 | -470 | +360 | 79.1% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +8.5 | 46.5 | -520 | +400 | 80.7% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +9.5 | 46.5 | -470 | +360 | 79.1% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +8.5 | 46.5 | -500 | +385 | 80.2% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +9.5 | 46.5 | -425 | +330 | 77.7% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +8.5 | 46.5 | -500 | +385 | 80.2% |
| 2026-10-28 01:57 UTC | +8.5 | 46.5 | -395 | +310 | 76.6% |
| 2026-10-28 02:12 UTC | +8.5 | 46.5 | -410 | +320 | 77.2% |
| 2026-10-28 02:57 UTC | +8.5 | 46.5 | -425 | +330 | 77.7% |
| 2026-10-28 05:42 UTC | +9.5 | 46.5 | -425 | +330 | 77.7% |
| 2026-10-28 08:42 UTC | +9.5 | 46.5 | -440 | +340 | 78.2% |
| 2026-10-28 15:12 UTC | +9.5 | 46.5 | -425 | +330 | 77.7% |
| 2026-10-28 16:42 UTC | +9.5 | 46.5 | -485 | +370 | 79.6% |
| 2026-10-28 18:37 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-28 20:42 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -520 | +390 | 80.4% |
| 2026-10-28 21:27 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-28 22:57 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -485 | +370 | 79.6% |
| 2026-10-29 18:12 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-29 20:22 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -485 | +370 | 79.6% |
| 2026-10-29 21:52 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-30 16:47 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -485 | +370 | 79.6% |
| 2026-10-30 17:12 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-30 17:47 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -485 | +370 | 79.6% |
| 2026-10-30 20:12 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-11-01 04:27 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -485 | +370 | 79.6% |
| 2026-11-01 14:27 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-11-01 17:12 UTC | +10.0 | 45.5 | -485 | +370 | 79.6% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
85°F, wind 12 mph (gusts 12), precip 0.00 in, humidity 40% — forecast.
Wind at or above 10 mph. Measured on this warehouse, games in the 10–15 mph bucket landed about 1.7 points under the market total (n=403). That is a totals signal, not a win-probability one.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Jakobi Meyers | Questionable | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +1.06 | 88% | high |
| CB Montaric Brown | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.75 | 75% | high |
| S Eric Murray | Doubtful | Concussion | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.50 | 80% | high |
| S Antonio Johnson | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.37 | 59% | medium |
| RB LeQuint Allen Jr. | Questionable | Hip | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.16 | 22% | medium |
| CB Christian Braswell | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.15 | 15% | medium |
| CB Jaylon Jones | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.07 | 7% | medium |
| LS Ross Matiscik | Out | Shoulder | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| DT Albert Regis | Questionable | Elbow | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Alec Pierce | Out | Heel | Did Not Participate In Practice | +1.29 | 83% | high |
| WR Darius Slayton | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.04 | 82% | high |
| CB Charvarius Ward | Questionable | Not injury related - resting player | Full Participation in Practice | +0.94 | 94% | high |
| WR Keenan Allen | Questionable | Not injury related - resting player | Full Participation in Practice | +0.85 | 70% | high |
| CB Sauce Gardner | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.84 | 84% | high |
| TE Tyler Warren | Out | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.57 | 84% | high |
| DE Arden Key | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.42 | 67% | high |
| WR Ashton Dulin | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.25 | 21% | medium |
| TE Andrew Ogletree | Questionable | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.23 | 32% | medium |
| LB Jaylon Carlies | Out | Ribs | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.18 | 29% | medium |
| RB DJ Giddens | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.10 | 12% | medium |
| LB Austin Ajiake | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.09 | 14% | medium |
| TE Will Mallory | Out | Thumb | Full Participation in Practice | +0.08 | 14% | medium |
| WR Anthony Gould | Out | Concussion | Full Participation in Practice | +0.08 | 7% | medium |
| CB Justin Walley | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB CJ Allen | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB Bryce Boettcher | Questionable | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |