Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High (outdoors) · 2026_08_KC_DEN
Final: KC 24 – DEN 28 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:11 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 46.8% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:12 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 46.8% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:06 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 48.3% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 20:45 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 49.6% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 01:12 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +108 | -126 | 46.3% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +108 | -126 | 46.3% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +108 | -126 | 46.3% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +108 | -126 | 46.3% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-23 18:12 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-23 21:42 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +108 | -126 | 46.3% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-24 21:12 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +108 | -126 | 46.3% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-25 22:17 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +110 | -130 | 45.7% |
| 2026-10-25 22:37 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +108 | -126 | 46.3% |
| 2026-10-26 00:07 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-26 04:22 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-26 13:42 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-26 14:42 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-27 19:42 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-27 22:17 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-27 23:07 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +102 | -120 | 47.6% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | -1.5 | 40.5 | +100 | -118 | 48.0% |
| 2026-10-28 01:12 UTC | -1.5 | 40.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | -1.5 | 40.5 | +100 | -118 | 48.0% |
| 2026-10-28 05:42 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | +102 | -122 | 47.4% |
| 2026-10-28 14:42 UTC | -1.5 | 40.5 | -102 | -118 | 48.3% |
| 2026-11-01 02:07 UTC | -1.5 | 40.5 | -105 | -115 | 48.9% |
| 2026-11-01 10:42 UTC | -1.5 | 40.5 | -108 | -112 | 49.6% |
| 2026-11-01 11:42 UTC | -1.5 | 40.5 | -105 | -115 | 48.9% |
| 2026-11-01 14:12 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | -105 | -115 | 48.9% |
| 2026-11-01 16:42 UTC | -1.5 | 41.5 | -108 | -112 | 49.6% |
| 2026-11-01 20:57 UTC | +1.5 | 41.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
51°F, wind 2 mph (gusts 4), precip 0.00 in, humidity 25% — forecast.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Jaylen Waddle | Questionable | Chest | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.06 | 78% | high |
| CB Riley Moss | Questionable | Ribs | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.95 | 95% | high |
| CB Pat Surtain II | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.93 | 93% | high |
| T Garett Bolles | Questionable | Hip | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.92 | 98% | high |
| DE Zach Allen | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.79 | 79% | high |
| S Brandon Jones | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.57 | 91% | high |
| S Talanoa Hufanga | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.56 | 89% | high |
| WR Marvin Mims Jr. | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.43 | 35% | medium |
| RB RJ Harvey | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.40 | 44% | medium |
| LB Jonah Elliss | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.23 | 37% | medium |
| LB Dondrea Tillman | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.21 | 34% | medium |
| RB Tyler Badie | Out | Thumb | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.13 | 17% | medium |
| RB Jonah Coleman | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Rashee Rice | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.92 | 70% | high |
| CB L'Jarius Sneed | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.88 | 88% | high |
| T Josh Simmons | Out | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.88 | 93% | medium |
| DT Chris Jones | Questionable | Calf | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.58 | 78% | high |
| S Chamarri Conner | Doubtful | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.50 | 80% | high |
| T Jaylon Moore | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.35 | 38% | medium |
| DT Omarr Norman-Lott | Out | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.19 | 26% | low |
| RB Brashard Smith | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.13 | 17% | medium |
| LB Cooper McDonald | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.03 | 5% | medium |
| CB Mansoor Delane | Questionable | Shoulder | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| DE R Mason Thomas | Questionable | Not injury related - personal matter | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |