Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium (dome) · 2026_08_LAC_LA
Final: LAC 9 – LA 24 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:10 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 71.4% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:11 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 71.4% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:06 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 70.0% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 20:30 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 71.4% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | +7.5 | 45.5 | -400 | +315 | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -360 | +285 | 75.1% |
| 2026-10-20 22:42 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -355 | +280 | 74.8% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +7.5 | 45.5 | -400 | +315 | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -355 | +280 | 74.8% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +7.5 | 45.5 | -400 | +315 | 76.9% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -355 | +280 | 74.8% |
| 2026-10-22 22:42 UTC | +7.5 | 46.5 | -340 | +270 | 74.1% |
| 2026-10-22 23:12 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -335 | +270 | 74.0% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -335 | +270 | 74.0% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -335 | +270 | 74.0% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -305 | +245 | 72.2% |
| 2026-10-25 04:27 UTC | +7.0 | 45.5 | -310 | +250 | 72.6% |
| 2026-10-25 22:17 UTC | +7.5 | 45.5 | -360 | +290 | 75.3% |
| 2026-10-25 23:07 UTC | +7.5 | 45.5 | -370 | +295 | 75.7% |
| 2026-10-26 00:07 UTC | +7.5 | 45.5 | -360 | +285 | 75.1% |
| 2026-10-26 01:42 UTC | +7.0 | 44.5 | -340 | +270 | 74.1% |
| 2026-10-26 04:52 UTC | +7.0 | 43.5 | -340 | +270 | 74.1% |
| 2026-10-26 12:27 UTC | +7.0 | 43.5 | -325 | +260 | 73.4% |
| 2026-10-26 16:22 UTC | +6.5 | 43.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-26 22:12 UTC | +6.5 | 44.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-27 12:07 UTC | +6.5 | 44.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-27 19:42 UTC | +6.5 | 44.5 | -298 | +240 | 71.8% |
| 2026-10-27 20:42 UTC | +6.5 | 44.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-27 21:37 UTC | +6.5 | 44.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-27 22:12 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +6.5 | 44.5 | -295 | +240 | 71.7% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +6.5 | 44.5 | -295 | +240 | 71.7% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +6.5 | 44.5 | -295 | +240 | 71.7% |
| 2026-10-28 05:42 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-28 09:42 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -298 | +240 | 71.8% |
| 2026-10-28 21:12 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-28 21:27 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-28 21:57 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-28 22:57 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -278 | +225 | 70.5% |
| 2026-10-29 08:22 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-29 16:12 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -278 | +225 | 70.5% |
| 2026-10-29 18:12 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -270 | +220 | 70.0% |
| 2026-10-29 20:42 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -278 | +225 | 70.5% |
| 2026-10-29 22:17 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -270 | +220 | 70.0% |
| 2026-10-30 05:42 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -278 | +225 | 70.5% |
| 2026-10-30 09:37 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -270 | +220 | 70.0% |
| 2026-10-30 13:27 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -278 | +225 | 70.5% |
| 2026-10-30 14:12 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -270 | +220 | 70.0% |
| 2026-10-31 00:22 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -278 | +225 | 70.5% |
| 2026-10-31 21:22 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -265 | +215 | 69.6% |
| 2026-11-01 04:12 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -258 | +210 | 69.1% |
| 2026-11-01 04:27 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -265 | +215 | 69.6% |
| 2026-11-01 06:27 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -258 | +210 | 69.1% |
| 2026-11-01 10:42 UTC | +6.0 | 45.5 | -258 | +210 | 69.1% |
| 2026-11-01 12:17 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -258 | +210 | 69.1% |
| 2026-11-01 12:52 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -265 | +215 | 69.6% |
| 2026-11-01 14:52 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -270 | +220 | 70.0% |
| 2026-11-01 15:22 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -278 | +225 | 70.5% |
| 2026-11-01 15:52 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -270 | +220 | 70.0% |
| 2026-11-01 19:42 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
| 2026-11-01 20:12 UTC | +6.5 | 45.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-11-01 20:22 UTC | +6.5 | 46.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-11-01 20:57 UTC | +6.5 | 46.5 | -285 | +230 | 71.0% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
Indoors. Not a factor.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Puka Nacua | Questionable | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +1.09 | 71% | high |
| CB Trent McDuffie | Questionable | Groin | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.95 | 95% | high |
| CB Jaylen Watson | Out | Shoulder | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.92 | 92% | high |
| C Coleman Shelton | Questionable | Hip | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.70 | 99% | high |
| S Kam Curl | Questionable | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.60 | 96% | high |
| S Quentin Lake | Questionable | Hip | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 96% | high |
| LB Nate Landman | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.50 | 81% | high |
| S Kamren Kinchens | Doubtful | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.47 | 62% | high |
| WR Jordan Whittington | Questionable | Back | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.46 | 34% | medium |
| TE Colby Parkinson | Questionable | Rib | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.42 | 57% | medium |
| TE Terrance Ferguson | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.27 | 38% | medium |
| LB Josaiah Stewart | Questionable | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.22 | 34% | medium |
| LS Joe Cardona | Doubtful | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| DT Aaron Donald | Out | Back | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Trey Lance | Doubtful | Groin | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.51 | 36% | medium |
| WR Ladd McConkey | Questionable | Foot | Did Not Participate In Practice | +1.01 | 76% | high |
| WR Quentin Johnston | Out | Chest | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.96 | 74% | high |
| T Joe Alt | Out | Neck | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.88 | 93% | high |
| G Trevor Penning | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.79 | 84% | high |
| T Trey Pipkins | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.77 | 82% | high |
| S Elijah Molden | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.75 | 75% | high |
| DE Tuli Tuipulotu | Questionable | Hip | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.72 | 72% | high |
| G Branson Taylor | Questionable | Neck | Full Participation in Practice | +0.71 | 100% | low |
| CB Donte Jackson | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.69 | 69% | high |
| WR Tre Harris | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.63 | 49% | medium |
| S Derwin James | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.59 | 94% | high |
| LB Daiyan Henley | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.59 | 94% | high |
| DT Dalvin Tomlinson | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.40 | 54% | medium |
| DT Jamaree Caldwell | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.36 | 49% | medium |
| TE Charlie Kolar | Questionable | Forearm | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.30 | 35% | medium |
| DE Bud Dupree | Questionable | Neck | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.28 | 45% | medium |
| G Kayode Awosika | Out | Fibula | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.26 | 28% | medium |
| WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith | Questionable | Hamstring | Full Participation in Practice | +0.18 | 19% | medium |
| CB Deane Leonard | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.10 | 10% | medium |
| FB Scott Matlock | Questionable | Foot | Full Participation in Practice | +0.08 | 32% | medium |
| WR Brenen Thompson | Out | Quadricep | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Rodney Shelley | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |