Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_08_LV_NYJ
Final: LV 38 – NYJ 33 (home lost).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:07 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 50.0% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:07 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 50.0% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:04 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 52.6% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 17:16 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 54.3% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 03:32 UTC | +1.5 | 40.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-09-12 19:12 UTC | +1.5 | 40.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -118 | +100 | 52.0% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +1.5 | 42.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
| 2026-10-21 23:47 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -116 | -102 | 51.5% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -116 | -102 | 51.5% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -116 | -102 | 51.5% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -116 | -102 | 51.5% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +1.5 | 43.5 | -116 | -102 | 51.5% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | -1.5 | 42.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
| 2026-10-25 22:17 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -116 | -102 | 51.5% |
| 2026-10-26 00:07 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -118 | -102 | 51.7% |
| 2026-10-26 03:27 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -115 | -105 | 51.1% |
| 2026-10-26 03:42 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
| 2026-10-26 12:12 UTC | -1.5 | 44.5 | -108 | -112 | 49.6% |
| 2026-10-26 17:52 UTC | +1.5 | 44.5 | -112 | -108 | 50.4% |
| 2026-10-26 22:12 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -110 | -110 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-27 12:07 UTC | -1.5 | 45.5 | -110 | -110 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-27 18:12 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -110 | -110 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-27 19:12 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-10-27 22:17 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-10-27 22:37 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -120 | +102 | 52.4% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -120 | +102 | 52.4% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -120 | +102 | 52.4% |
| 2026-10-28 05:42 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-10-28 21:42 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-10-28 23:12 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-10-29 00:42 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-10-29 15:42 UTC | +1.5 | 45.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-11-01 01:42 UTC | +1.5 | 46.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-11-01 11:17 UTC | +1.5 | 46.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-11-01 11:42 UTC | +1.5 | 46.5 | -122 | +102 | 52.6% |
| 2026-11-01 12:17 UTC | +1.5 | 46.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
| 2026-11-01 13:42 UTC | +1.5 | 46.5 | -130 | +110 | 54.3% |
| 2026-11-01 17:57 UTC | +1.5 | 46.5 | -125 | +105 | 53.2% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
60°F, wind 8 mph (gusts 12), precip 0.00 in, humidity 54% — forecast.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G Dylan Parham | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.65 | 93% | high |
| RB Breece Hall | Questionable | Quadricep | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 68% | high |
| S Minkah Fitzpatrick | Out | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.60 | 97% | high |
| DE Joseph Ossai | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.58 | 58% | medium |
| TE Mason Taylor | Out | Thumb | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.58 | 81% | high |
| WR Tim Patrick | Questionable | Groin | Full Participation in Practice | +0.58 | 45% | medium |
| DE Kingsley Enagbare | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.45 | 45% | medium |
| DE Will McDonald IV | Questionable | Calf | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.41 | 65% | high |
| WR Adonai Mitchell | Out | Finger | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.39 | 43% | medium |
| S Dane Belton | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.33 | 53% | medium |
| DT T'Vondre Sweat | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.30 | 60% | medium |
| LB Francisco Mauigoa | Out | Quadricep | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.27 | 43% | medium |
| T Max Mitchell | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.18 | 19% | medium |
| WR Omar Cooper Jr. | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| TE Kenyon Sadiq | Questionable | Concussion | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| DE David Bailey | Doubtful | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| RB Kene Nwangwu | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB D'Angelo Ponds | Doubtful | Calf | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Aidan O'Connell | Questionable | Not injury related - personal matter | Did Not Participate In Practice | +4.22 | 72% | medium |
| WR Jalen Nailor | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.77 | 59% | medium |
| TE Brock Bowers | Questionable | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.64 | 85% | high |
| DE Kwity Paye | Questionable | Illness | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.63 | 63% | high |
| G Jackson Powers-Johnson | Questionable | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.63 | 89% | high |
| LB Quay Walker | Questionable | Chest | Full Participation in Practice | +0.58 | 92% | high |
| CB Darien Porter | Out | Foot | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.53 | 53% | medium |
| RB Ashton Jeanty | Questionable | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.51 | 78% | high |
| WR Jack Bech | Questionable | Forearm | Full Participation in Practice | +0.42 | 40% | medium |
| WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. | Out | Hamstring | Full Participation in Practice | +0.40 | 45% | medium |
| DT Tonka Hemingway | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.24 | 33% | medium |
| DE Patrick Johnson | Out | Stinger | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.07 | 12% | medium |
| TE Carter Runyon | Out | Foot | Full Participation in Practice | +0.04 | 6% | medium |
| S Treydan Stukes | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| C Trey Zuhn III | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| RB Mike Washington Jr. | Questionable | Foot | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |