Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field (dome) · 2026_08_MIN_DET
Final: MIN 15 – DET 19 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:05 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 60.0% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:05 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 60.0% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:03 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 60.4% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 17:17 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 60.4% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 06:40 UTC | +4.5 | 47.5 | -225 | +185 | 66.4% |
| 2026-09-13 16:12 UTC | +4.5 | 47.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | n/a | 48.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-20 19:12 UTC | +3.0 | 48.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +2.5 | 47.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +3.0 | 48.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +2.5 | 47.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +3.0 | 48.5 | -164 | +138 | 59.7% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +2.5 | 47.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-22 21:27 UTC | +2.5 | 46.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -158 | +134 | 58.9% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +2.5 | 46.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -158 | +134 | 58.9% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +2.5 | 46.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +3.0 | 47.5 | -158 | +134 | 58.9% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +2.5 | 46.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-25 22:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -146 | +124 | 57.1% |
| 2026-10-26 00:07 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-26 03:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-26 12:52 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-26 13:27 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -162 | +136 | 59.3% |
| 2026-10-26 14:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -155 | +130 | 58.3% |
| 2026-10-26 15:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-26 21:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -175 | +145 | 60.9% |
| 2026-10-26 23:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-27 12:07 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-27 17:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -174 | +146 | 61.0% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -174 | +146 | 61.0% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -174 | +146 | 61.0% |
| 2026-10-28 02:27 UTC | +3.5 | 46.5 | -172 | +144 | 60.7% |
| 2026-10-28 05:42 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
| 2026-10-31 23:57 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -166 | +140 | 60.0% |
| 2026-11-01 00:12 UTC | +3.0 | 46.5 | -170 | +142 | 60.4% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
Indoors. Not a factor.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB D.J. Reed | Questionable | Rib | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.89 | 89% | high |
| S Kerby Joseph | Out | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 96% | high |
| S Brian Branch | Questionable | Achilles | Full Participation in Practice | +0.58 | 93% | high |
| C Cade Mays | Questionable | Wrist | Full Participation in Practice | +0.56 | 80% | high |
| CB Roger McCreary | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.53 | 53% | medium |
| G Christian Mahogany | Out | Hip | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.48 | 68% | high |
| DT Tyleik Williams | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.36 | 41% | medium |
| CB Rock Ya-Sin | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.34 | 34% | medium |
| G Ben Bartch | Out | Foot | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.33 | 47% | medium |
| S Christian Izien | Questionable | Groin | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.30 | 47% | medium |
| S Thomas Harper | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.23 | 37% | medium |
| T Blake Miller | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Kyler Murray | Out | Concussion | Limited Participation in Practice | +6.46 | 98% | high |
| WR Justin Jefferson | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.13 | 94% | high |
| WR Jordan Addison | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.09 | 84% | high |
| WR Jauan Jennings | Out | Not injury related - personal matter | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.97 | 79% | high |
| T Brian O'Neill | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.88 | 94% | high |
| T Christian Darrisaw | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.80 | 85% | high |
| RB Jordan Mason | Questionable | Thumb | Full Participation in Practice | +0.42 | 45% | medium |
| C Michael Jurgens | Questionable | Elbow | Full Participation in Practice | +0.20 | 28% | medium |
| TE Ben Yurosek | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.12 | 17% | medium |
| S Jay Ward | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.08 | 13% | medium |
| P Brett Thorson | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| C Nick Samac | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Charles Demmings | Out | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |