Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_08_NE_MIA
Final: NE 24 – MIA 19 (home lost).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:12 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 23.4% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:13 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 23.4% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:07 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 26.6% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 20:45 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 25.6% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | -8.5 | 43.5 | +340 | -430 | 21.9% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +330 | -425 | 22.3% |
| 2026-10-21 19:52 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +320 | -410 | 22.8% |
| 2026-10-21 21:12 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +330 | -425 | 22.3% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | -8.5 | 43.5 | +340 | -430 | 21.9% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +330 | -425 | 22.3% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | -8.5 | 43.5 | +340 | -430 | 21.9% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +330 | -425 | 22.3% |
| 2026-10-23 04:22 UTC | -8.5 | 44.5 | +360 | -470 | 20.9% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | -8.5 | 43.5 | +360 | -460 | 20.9% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | -8.5 | 44.5 | +360 | -470 | 20.9% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | -8.5 | 43.5 | +360 | -460 | 20.9% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | -8.5 | 44.5 | +360 | -470 | 20.9% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | -8.5 | 43.5 | +360 | -460 | 20.9% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | -8.5 | 44.5 | +360 | -470 | 20.9% |
| 2026-10-25 16:12 UTC | -8.5 | 44.5 | +370 | -485 | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-25 17:12 UTC | -8.5 | 44.5 | +360 | -470 | 20.9% |
| 2026-10-25 21:42 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +300 | -380 | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-26 04:22 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +310 | -395 | 23.4% |
| 2026-10-26 09:17 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +300 | -380 | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-26 12:12 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +310 | -395 | 23.4% |
| 2026-10-26 12:27 UTC | -7.0 | 44.5 | +300 | -380 | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-26 22:12 UTC | -7.5 | 44.5 | +310 | -395 | 23.4% |
| 2026-10-27 21:07 UTC | -7.0 | 44.5 | +275 | -345 | 25.6% |
| 2026-10-27 23:07 UTC | -7.0 | 44.5 | +270 | -340 | 25.9% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | -7.0 | 44.5 | +275 | -340 | 25.7% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | -7.0 | 44.5 | +270 | -340 | 25.9% |
| 2026-10-28 00:22 UTC | -7.0 | 44.5 | +260 | -325 | 26.6% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | -7.0 | 44.5 | +275 | -340 | 25.7% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | -7.0 | 44.5 | +260 | -325 | 26.6% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | -7.0 | 44.5 | +275 | -340 | 25.7% |
| 2026-10-28 04:22 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +270 | -340 | 25.9% |
| 2026-10-28 09:42 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +260 | -325 | 26.6% |
| 2026-10-28 12:57 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +250 | -310 | 27.4% |
| 2026-10-29 18:27 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +260 | -325 | 26.6% |
| 2026-10-31 20:42 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +250 | -310 | 27.4% |
| 2026-10-31 22:12 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +260 | -325 | 26.6% |
| 2026-10-31 22:22 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +250 | -310 | 27.4% |
| 2026-10-31 22:52 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +260 | -325 | 26.6% |
| 2026-10-31 23:12 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +250 | -310 | 27.4% |
| 2026-11-01 04:52 UTC | -7.0 | 43.5 | +270 | -340 | 25.9% |
| 2026-11-01 14:12 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +260 | -325 | 26.6% |
| 2026-11-01 14:27 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +245 | -305 | 27.8% |
| 2026-11-01 14:42 UTC | -7.5 | 41.5 | +320 | -405 | 22.9% |
| 2026-11-01 14:52 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +280 | -355 | 25.2% |
| 2026-11-01 15:52 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +275 | -345 | 25.6% |
| 2026-11-01 17:12 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +270 | -340 | 25.9% |
| 2026-11-01 18:12 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +275 | -345 | 25.6% |
| 2026-11-01 18:27 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +270 | -340 | 25.9% |
| 2026-11-01 18:57 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +275 | -345 | 25.6% |
| 2026-11-01 20:22 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +270 | -340 | 25.9% |
| 2026-11-01 20:42 UTC | -7.0 | 41.5 | +275 | -345 | 25.6% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
82°F, wind 18 mph (gusts 20), precip 0.00 in, humidity 53% — forecast.
Wind at or above 10 mph. Measured on this warehouse, games in the 10–15 mph bucket landed about 1.7 points under the market total (n=403). That is a totals signal, not a win-probability one.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DT Kenneth Grant | Questionable | Toe | Full Participation in Practice | +0.39 | 52% | medium |
| LB Chop Robinson | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.30 | 49% | medium |
| CB Storm Duck | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.29 | 39% | medium |
| WR Ryan Miller | Questionable | Hip | Full Participation in Practice | +0.29 | 24% | medium |
| CB Julius Brents | Questionable | Neck | Full Participation in Practice | +0.28 | 28% | medium |
| DE Rob Beal Jr. | Doubtful | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.18 | 18% | medium |
| LB Ronnie Harrison | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.15 | 20% | medium |
| RB Jaylen Wright | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.13 | 19% | medium |
| LB Willie Gay Jr. | Questionable | Illness | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.12 | 19% | medium |
| T Kadyn Proctor | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LS Tucker Addington | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| WR Caleb Douglas | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| TE Justin Joly | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Reese Taylor | Questionable | Quadricep | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB Jackson Woodard | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| S Kyle Louis | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR A.J. Brown | Questionable | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +1.25 | 89% | high |
| WR Mack Hollins | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.94 | 67% | high |
| CB Christian Gonzalez | Questionable | Illness | n/a | +0.93 | 93% | high |
| T Will Campbell | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.89 | 95% | high |
| CB Carlton Davis III | Questionable | Neck | Full Participation in Practice | +0.89 | 89% | high |
| T Morgan Moses | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.86 | 92% | high |
| G Alijah Vera-Tucker | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.68 | 96% | high |
| LB Dre'Mont Jones | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.62 | 62% | high |
| S Kevin Byard | Questionable | Chest | Full Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 99% | high |
| S Craig Woodson | Questionable | Shoulder | Full Participation in Practice | +0.59 | 94% | high |
| RB Rhamondre Stevenson | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.53 | 62% | high |
| DT Christian Barmore | Questionable | Shoulder | Full Participation in Practice | +0.47 | 63% | high |
| RB TreVeyon Henderson | Questionable | Illness | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.43 | 43% | medium |
| C Ben Brown | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.35 | 49% | medium |
| LB Christian Elliss | Questionable | Chest | Full Participation in Practice | +0.33 | 53% | medium |
| CB Charles Woods | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.06 | 8% | medium |
| FB Reggie Gilliam | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.04 | 18% | medium |
| CB Channing Canada | Out | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB Quintayvious Hutchins | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| T Marcus Bryant | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| S Brenden Schooler | Out | Back | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| CB Karon Prunty | Out | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| TE Eli Raridon | Questionable | Thigh | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| T Dametrious Crownover | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |