Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET · Northwest Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_08_PHI_WAS
Final: PHI 10 – WAS 27 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:13 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 64.5% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:14 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 64.5% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:07 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 69.6% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-02 00:45 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 70.5% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 01:12 UTC | -1.5 | 46.5 | +105 | -125 | 46.8% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -200 | +168 | 64.1% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +3.5 | 41.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -200 | +168 | 64.1% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +3.5 | 41.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -200 | +168 | 64.1% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +3.5 | 41.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-22 23:22 UTC | +3.5 | 41.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -200 | +168 | 64.1% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +3.5 | 41.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -200 | +168 | 64.1% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +3.5 | 41.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -200 | +168 | 64.1% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +3.5 | 41.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-25 22:17 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -200 | +168 | 64.1% |
| 2026-10-26 00:07 UTC | +3.5 | 41.5 | -180 | +150 | 61.6% |
| 2026-10-26 01:42 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-26 03:27 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -185 | +154 | 62.2% |
| 2026-10-26 16:12 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-26 19:42 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-26 19:52 UTC | +3.5 | 40.5 | -192 | +160 | 63.1% |
| 2026-10-27 04:12 UTC | +4.5 | 40.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-27 13:42 UTC | +4.5 | 40.5 | -198 | +164 | 63.7% |
| 2026-10-27 14:58 UTC | +4.5 | 40.5 | -205 | +170 | 64.5% |
| 2026-10-27 17:42 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -225 | +185 | 66.4% |
| 2026-10-27 18:12 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-27 18:42 UTC | +5.5 | 39.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-27 19:12 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -245 | +200 | 68.1% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -245 | +200 | 68.1% |
| 2026-10-28 01:22 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -245 | +200 | 68.1% |
| 2026-10-28 05:27 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -218 | +180 | 65.7% |
| 2026-10-28 15:52 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -238 | +195 | 67.5% |
| 2026-10-28 19:52 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -230 | +190 | 66.9% |
| 2026-10-28 20:42 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -230 | +190 | 66.9% |
| 2026-10-28 22:57 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -225 | +185 | 66.4% |
| 2026-10-28 23:12 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -230 | +190 | 66.9% |
| 2026-10-29 18:12 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -238 | +195 | 67.5% |
| 2026-10-29 22:12 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -250 | +205 | 68.5% |
| 2026-10-30 05:12 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -258 | +210 | 69.1% |
| 2026-10-30 13:27 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -250 | +205 | 68.5% |
| 2026-10-30 17:37 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -258 | +210 | 69.1% |
| 2026-10-30 20:12 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -265 | +215 | 69.6% |
| 2026-10-30 22:27 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -250 | +205 | 68.5% |
| 2026-10-31 00:22 UTC | +5.5 | 40.5 | -250 | +205 | 68.5% |
| 2026-10-31 12:52 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -250 | +205 | 68.5% |
| 2026-10-31 16:52 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -258 | +210 | 69.1% |
| 2026-11-01 11:17 UTC | +6.5 | 40.5 | -270 | +220 | 70.0% |
| 2026-11-01 12:42 UTC | +6.5 | 40.5 | -278 | +225 | 70.5% |
| 2026-11-01 16:12 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -270 | +220 | 70.0% |
| 2026-11-01 23:12 UTC | +6.0 | 40.5 | -278 | +225 | 70.5% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
70°F, wind 6 mph (gusts 15), precip 0.00 in, humidity 65% — forecast.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Jayden Daniels | Out | Elbow | Limited Participation in Practice | +6.18 | 92% | high |
| QB Marcus Mariota | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +3.70 | 58% | medium |
| WR Terry McLaurin | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +1.16 | 78% | high |
| WR Stefon Diggs | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.90 | 61% | high |
| CB Trey Amos | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.78 | 78% | medium |
| G Sam Cosmi | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.68 | 97% | high |
| S Nick Cross | Questionable | Illness | Full Participation in Practice | +0.60 | 98% | high |
| LB Frankie Luvu | Out | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.60 | 97% | high |
| DE Charles Omenihu | Out | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.55 | 55% | medium |
| RB Rachaad White | Out | Shoulder | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.52 | 53% | medium |
| WR Treylon Burks | Questionable | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.50 | 55% | medium |
| DT Daron Payne | Out | Foot | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.48 | 64% | high |
| DT Javon Kinlaw | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.47 | 62% | high |
| DE Deatrich Wise | Questionable | Quadricep | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.41 | 41% | medium |
| TE Chig Okonkwo | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.41 | 62% | high |
| G Lucas Patrick | Questionable | Illness | Full Participation in Practice | +0.39 | 55% | medium |
| RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Out | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.37 | 39% | medium |
| TE John Bates | Questionable | Shoulder | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.36 | 47% | medium |
| DT Jer'Zhan Newton | Questionable | Pectoral | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.32 | 43% | medium |
| LB Javontae Jean-Baptiste | Out | Pectoral | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.27 | 27% | medium |
| RB Jeremy McNichols | Questionable | Quadricep | Full Participation in Practice | +0.26 | 25% | medium |
| LB Jordan Magee | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.14 | 22% | medium |
| S Percy Butler | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.13 | 20% | medium |
| S Tyler Owens | Questionable | Hamstring | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Jalen Hurts | Out | Calf | Did Not Participate In Practice | +6.33 | 95% | high |
| WR DeVonta Smith | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +1.29 | 86% | high |
| RB Saquon Barkley | Questionable | Hamstring | Full Participation in Practice | +0.77 | 77% | high |
| WR Marquise Brown | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.69 | 54% | medium |
| TE Dallas Goedert | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.67 | 79% | high |
| G Landon Dickerson | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.64 | 91% | high |
| CB Jonathan Jones | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.62 | 62% | high |
| LB Zack Baun | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.60 | 96% | high |
| S Andrew Mukuba | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.58 | 92% | medium |
| WR Dontayvion Wicks | Out | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.57 | 51% | medium |
| LB A.J. Epenesa | Doubtful | Back | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.51 | 51% | medium |
| LB Jonathan Greenard | Questionable | Ankle | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.49 | 79% | high |
| T Fred Johnson | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.44 | 47% | medium |
| TE Grant Calcaterra | Questionable | Back | Full Participation in Practice | +0.42 | 52% | medium |
| CB Jakorian Bennett | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.41 | 41% | medium |
| LB Jihaad Campbell | Out | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.37 | 60% | medium |
| LB Nolan Smith | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.37 | 58% | medium |
| CB Michael Carter II | Out | Abdomen | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.30 | 30% | medium |
| S Marcus Epps | Out | Groin | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.30 | 48% | medium |
| LB Jalyx Hunt | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.27 | 43% | medium |
| WR Britain Covey | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.13 | 11% | medium |
| C Drew Kendall | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.12 | 17% | medium |
| RB Will Shipley | Out | Foot | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.06 | 8% | medium |
| TE Eli Stowers | Questionable | Quadricep | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |