Model win probabilities against the de-vigged market price.
2026 Week 8 (REG) · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium (outdoors) · 2026_08_TEN_CIN
Final: TEN 36 – CIN 43 (home won).
| run | pass | arm | captured (UTC) | k ok | median | sample spread | samples | market | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1_open | blind | identified | 2026-10-27 16:03 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 83.2% | n/a |
| T1_open | informed | identified | 2026-10-27 16:03 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 83.2% | n/a |
| T2_informed | informed | identified | 2026-10-30 22:02 UTC | 0/5 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 83.7% | n/a |
| T3_final | informed | identified | 2026-11-01 17:17 UTC | 0/3 | n/a | 0.0 pp | none parsed | 86.3% | n/a |
Model thinkingmachines/Inkling, prompt version v3, mode game.
| captured (UTC) | spread (home) | total | home ML | away ML | de-vigged p(home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 04:35 UTC | +6.5 | 49.5 | -290 | +235 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-20 17:52 UTC | +10.5 | 45.5 | -620 | +460 | 82.8% |
| 2026-10-20 20:22 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -575 | +425 | 81.7% |
| 2026-10-21 20:27 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -550 | +410 | 81.2% |
| 2026-10-21 21:22 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -575 | +425 | 81.7% |
| 2026-10-22 11:12 UTC | +10.5 | 45.5 | -620 | +460 | 82.8% |
| 2026-10-22 11:27 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -575 | +425 | 81.7% |
| 2026-10-22 16:22 UTC | +10.5 | 45.5 | -620 | +460 | 82.8% |
| 2026-10-22 16:42 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -575 | +425 | 81.7% |
| 2026-10-23 04:42 UTC | +10.5 | 45.5 | -620 | +460 | 82.8% |
| 2026-10-23 04:52 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -575 | +425 | 81.7% |
| 2026-10-24 17:17 UTC | +10.5 | 45.5 | -620 | +460 | 82.8% |
| 2026-10-24 17:42 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -575 | +425 | 81.7% |
| 2026-10-24 21:42 UTC | +10.5 | 45.5 | -620 | +460 | 82.8% |
| 2026-10-24 21:52 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -575 | +425 | 81.7% |
| 2026-10-25 15:52 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -550 | +410 | 81.2% |
| 2026-10-25 21:22 UTC | +10.0 | 47.5 | -600 | +440 | 82.2% |
| 2026-10-26 00:17 UTC | +10.0 | 47.5 | -575 | +425 | 81.7% |
| 2026-10-26 01:42 UTC | +10.0 | 47.5 | -600 | +440 | 82.2% |
| 2026-10-26 04:52 UTC | +10.0 | 47.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-26 08:17 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-26 09:17 UTC | +10.0 | 47.5 | -650 | +470 | 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 09:42 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-26 12:12 UTC | +10.5 | 47.5 | -700 | +500 | 84.0% |
| 2026-10-26 14:42 UTC | +10.5 | 46.5 | -675 | +490 | 83.7% |
| 2026-10-26 14:52 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-26 17:37 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -650 | +470 | 83.2% |
| 2026-10-26 18:12 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-26 23:42 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -600 | +440 | 82.2% |
| 2026-10-27 12:07 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-27 15:42 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -650 | +470 | 83.2% |
| 2026-10-27 19:12 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-27 19:42 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -650 | +470 | 83.2% |
| 2026-10-27 20:12 UTC | +10.5 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-27 23:17 UTC | +10.5 | 46.5 | -590 | +430 | 81.9% |
| 2026-10-27 23:37 UTC | +10.5 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-28 00:22 UTC | +10.5 | 46.5 | -600 | +440 | 82.2% |
| 2026-10-28 00:42 UTC | +10.5 | 46.5 | -590 | +430 | 81.9% |
| 2026-10-28 01:12 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-28 01:42 UTC | +10.5 | 46.5 | -590 | +430 | 81.9% |
| 2026-10-28 05:42 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-28 17:42 UTC | +10.5 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-28 20:12 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -520 | +390 | 80.4% |
| 2026-10-29 06:42 UTC | +10.0 | 46.5 | -500 | +380 | 80.0% |
| 2026-10-29 15:27 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -575 | +425 | 81.7% |
| 2026-10-29 15:42 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-29 17:27 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -650 | +470 | 83.2% |
| 2026-10-29 17:57 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-29 18:12 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -650 | +470 | 83.2% |
| 2026-10-29 18:27 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -625 | +455 | 82.7% |
| 2026-10-30 01:17 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -600 | +440 | 82.2% |
| 2026-10-30 04:27 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -675 | +490 | 83.7% |
| 2026-10-30 04:52 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -675 | +490 | 83.7% |
| 2026-10-30 06:57 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -675 | +490 | 83.7% |
| 2026-10-30 07:57 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -675 | +490 | 83.7% |
| 2026-10-30 15:42 UTC | +11.5 | 46.5 | -675 | +490 | 83.7% |
| 2026-10-30 16:12 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -650 | +470 | 83.2% |
| 2026-10-30 16:17 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -675 | +490 | 83.7% |
| 2026-10-30 16:47 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -650 | +470 | 83.2% |
| 2026-10-30 18:07 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -675 | +490 | 83.7% |
| 2026-10-31 22:12 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -650 | +470 | 83.2% |
| 2026-10-31 22:22 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -675 | +490 | 83.7% |
| 2026-11-01 03:42 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -700 | +500 | 84.0% |
| 2026-11-01 08:42 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -750 | +525 | 84.7% |
| 2026-11-01 10:42 UTC | +13.5 | 46.5 | -850 | +575 | 85.8% |
| 2026-11-01 10:47 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -850 | +575 | 85.8% |
| 2026-11-01 12:42 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -800 | +550 | 85.2% |
| 2026-11-01 13:42 UTC | +12.5 | 45.5 | -800 | +550 | 85.2% |
| 2026-11-01 15:12 UTC | +12.5 | 46.5 | -850 | +575 | 85.8% |
| 2026-11-01 16:12 UTC | +13.5 | 46.5 | -950 | +625 | 86.8% |
| 2026-11-01 16:42 UTC | +13.5 | 45.5 | -950 | +625 | 86.8% |
| 2026-11-01 16:57 UTC | +13.5 | 46.5 | -950 | +625 | 86.8% |
| 2026-11-01 17:12 UTC | +13.5 | 45.5 | -900 | +600 | 86.3% |
Spread is signed from the home side: positive means the home team is favoured by that many points.
72°F, wind 11 mph (gusts 22), precip 0.00 in, humidity 73% — forecast.
Wind at or above 10 mph. Measured on this warehouse, games in the 10–15 mph bucket landed about 1.7 points under the market total (n=403). That is a totals signal, not a win-probability one.
Points of spread at risk. This is a documented PRIOR, not a measurement — it has not been validated against how far lines actually move when a player is ruled out.
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Joe Burrow | Questionable | Back | Full Participation in Practice | +6.62 | 96% | high |
| WR Ja'Marr Chase | Questionable | Concussion | Full Participation in Practice | +1.24 | 93% | high |
| WR Tee Higgins | Questionable | Groin | Full Participation in Practice | +1.13 | 80% | high |
| WR Andrei Iosivas | Out | Thumb | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.99 | 77% | high |
| G Dalton Risner | Questionable | Knee | Full Participation in Practice | +0.57 | 81% | high |
| DE Shemar Stewart | Doubtful | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.54 | 54% | medium |
| S Bryan Cook | Questionable | Ankle | Full Participation in Practice | +0.52 | 84% | high |
| S Kyle Dugger | Out | Quadricep | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.50 | 80% | high |
| DT B.J. Hill | Questionable | Achilles | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.49 | 65% | high |
| LB Joe Giles-Harris | Questionable | Calf | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.03 | 5% | medium |
| WR Colbie Young | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB Swayze Bozeman | Questionable | Groin | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| player | status | injury | practice | value | snaps | confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Calvin Ridley | Questionable | Hip | Full Participation in Practice | +0.92 | 74% | high |
| CB Cordale Flott | Questionable | Quadricep | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.80 | 80% | high |
| CB Jaylon Jones | Questionable | Knee | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.77 | 77% | high |
| S Amani Hooker | Out | Concussion | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.59 | 94% | high |
| DE John Franklin-Myers | Questionable | Groin | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.47 | 47% | medium |
| S Tony Adams | Questionable | Ankle | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.44 | 70% | high |
| LB Cedric Gray | Questionable | Concussion | Full Participation in Practice | +0.42 | 66% | high |
| RB Tyjae Spears | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.40 | 44% | medium |
| DT Jordan Elliott | Out | Not injury related - personal matter | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.34 | 46% | medium |
| S Kevin Winston Jr. | Questionable | Quadricep | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.31 | 50% | medium |
| CB Joshua Williams | Questionable | Pectoral | Full Participation in Practice | +0.19 | 19% | medium |
| TE David Martin-Robinson | Questionable | Hamstring | Did Not Participate In Practice | +0.09 | 13% | medium |
| LB James Williams | Questionable | Elbow | Limited Participation in Practice | +0.07 | 11% | medium |
| P Tommy Townsend | Out | Knee | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| WR Carnell Tate | Out | Shoulder | Did Not Participate In Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |
| LB Dorian Mausi | Questionable | Foot | Full Participation in Practice | unrated | n/a | n/a |